Hello fellow traders, holders and cryptomnesia!
The cryptocurrency market provides an excellent opportunity to increase their own capital. According to the observations of portal Holdcalc.com almost 98% of the sessions of the Bitcoin at the interval they finished the day trading in plus.
This is a fantastic result, which can not boast of any one financial or commercial tool, but according to unofficial statistics cryptocurrencies 90% of traders reset their own accounts for cryptogamy – fall Bitcoin to 80% for 2018, the year.
In today’s article we will look at non-standard indicators to forecast exchange rate of Bitcoin, let’s see how they are efficient and accurate, and whether they complement (or replace) the classical technical analysis.
Unlike the cryptocurrency, altcoins and tokens lost more than 90% of the cost, many speculators held most of the tools in these digital assets due to the high growth potential of cryptocurrencies compared Bitcoin to rally 2017, the year.
Now cryptoseal over ten-year history of market trading digital assets gives hope for recovery in the value of Bitcoin and altcoins and achieve new highs. But hope, investors and speculators would not hurt to have indicators to predict:
- Parish cryptogamy;
- Turning point fall;
- The probability of a deep correction.
As such indicators we can use some of the anomalies of the cryptocurrency market, analysts discovered, as well as adaptation tools, technical analysis stocks, indices and Forex market data price and volume of trading of Bitcoin.
At the end of 2017, analysts unexpectedly discovered a discrepancy value of Bitcoin on bitcoin exchanges in South Korea with other platforms, for example, in the US, where the market came company Coinbase is a world leader in the number of traders accounts.
This is a sustainable phenomenon, observed for three consecutive months, called “kimchi awards“.
The discrepancy between the price of a Bitcoin has formed the successive circumstances:
1. The expulsion of the bitcoin exchanges and the ban on the circulation of digital currencies in China;
2. The heyday of kriptoloji in South Korea took a share of 25% of the volume of world trade of Bitcoin;
3. The campaign of the government of the Republic of Korea aimed at “nationalization” of bitcoin exchanges.
Under the nationalization refers to the requirement of the authorities to the local sites for a total of verification of accounts. Instead of checking the documents provided by clients, the exchange was forced to open accounts only to clients that are serviced in the banks of South Korea. So the government has guaranteed for itself a passage by the account verification for all rules (KYC and AML), but actually closed the site for foreign traders.
Formed a kind of “internal market” has created premium kimchi, which “disappeared” in early March of 2018, and was forgotten.
In June of 2019 the premium kimchi recovered, prompting experts to introduce the rate spread as an indicator cryptogamy. The largest difference with the global average price, down to the spread at $1000, was registered on the Korean stock exchange Gopax.
As can be seen from the graph above, this is not enough to establish a sustained rally in the Bitcoin market, last year during the sharp rise of Bitcoin, the difference started from $2000 and has grown steadily. In June the situation is reminiscent of exactly the same case that occurred two years ago. Kimchi award was first created in may of 2017, and disappeared.
A similar pattern is observed at the moment: the value of Bitcoin equal on world markets and stock exchanges in Korea, and then came the fall of the BTCUSD rate at 40%. In June 2017, after reducing to zero premium kimchi cryptocurrency market also retraced 50%.
How to use the indicator kimchi for the prediction of the fall of Bitcoin
The main problem of the use of the indicator – the absence of ready-made graphical model. The trader will need to record the presence/absence of the difference in the price of BTC on the exchanges of South Korea.
Data use analytical resource CoinMarketCap, where every day you can record and watch:
1. The average market price of BTC, I opened the first page;
2. Find the cost of a pair BTCKRW converted automatically into US dollars on the major exchanges Korea: Bithumb, Coinone, UPbit, Corbit.
The indicator signals kimchi is better to evaluate in numeric values of the spread (thousands of United States dollars) to enable comparison with historical data. The rate of growth may be the level exceeded $2000 when you have a strong (five day values) trend on the rise.
- Twice the daily drop of the indicator – signal to possible emergency correction;
- The disappearance of the spread, after rising above $2,000 a week – a sign cryptogamy.
In this case the trader should cease to invest in the market, close the newly opened positions, to take measures to hedge the rest of Bitcoin.
Indicator of doctor Doom
Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini, known for predicting the 2008 crisis year and the nickname “Dr. Doom”, is a consistent critic of the cryptocurrency market. In 2018, the scientist extensively researched the issue of token USDT and came to the conclusion that the release of this digital asset is saved for six months Bitcoin from a major collapse.
Many experts were critical of the statements of Nouriel Roubini, but the second half of last year, fully proved the correctness of the most influential economist according to Forbes.
Tether USD is the world’s first steamcon invented by Bitfinex, a bitcoin exchange long concealed his authorship, opening offshore company Ltd Tether, hiding her beneficiaries. Released token equated to the US dollar, and promised customers the continuous forward and reverse exchange.
He passed through the accepted Fiat currency in the amount that triggered the emission of USDT. Its number you can verify on the blockchain, Fiat US $ was checking the audit. Hard peg to the dollar is allowed to trade tokens for other exchanges that have stood the course of bitcoin close 1 to 1 with USD.
Evidence the chart on CoinmarketCap, site crimestatistics that gathers information on 20 000 sites. Starting in the spring of 2015, USDT maintained peg to the U.S. dollar.
If you open a chart of capitalization Tether USD, you can see how a continuing increase in the emission of tokens was reflected in falling of the market of cryptocurrency, “a flood from cryptolab” failed to stop panic selling and even arrange rebounds.
The fall of companies Ltd and Tether Bitfinex started to have problems with the servicing Bank that was forced to drastically reduce capitalization, withdrawing Fiat and destroying tokens. At the same time, the rate of BTC fell to a minimum annual values, proving the correctness of Roubini.
Thanks to his observations, the traders can track the issue USDT tokens using a curve of capitalization for the medium-term forecast, but the fact of the issue of short – term entry into the market.
In both cases, account should be taken of the growth or decline of market capitalization from $100 million in medium-term tracking will approach daily chart analysis. After the issue of USDT are distributed to the exchanges for three days, then the market follows the trends.
The issue does not warrant a mandatory medium-term growth, but within three sessions attempt to push the Bitcoin exchange rate down will be redeemed by the market makers.
You can instantly track the issue of tokens, constantly watching Baccano and addresses of smart contracts. This is somewhat problematic, given the fact of increasing Tether number of platforms and standards for release stablein, the company now uses blackany Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron.
Not to sit in browsers blocks three platforms, use Whalepool sending messengers with bots important crimestatistics major transfers, including emissions Tether on any blockchain. Messages have a link to learn more about the event.
The index of fear of Bitcoin investors
Market statistics show that with the growth of the stock market investors are beginning to feel the greed. In an attempt to maximize profits they neglect the hedging, the protection position.
The stock market stop losses are not used directly, as traders open positions in options. The lack of stops leads to reduced volatility of their prices, which are accounted for using the VIX, called the fear index.
During the strong growth of the stock market greed causes investors to forget about the fear (VIX takes low values) and feet. As a result, a deep correction that turns into panicsel. Stocks waiting for a collapse that is triggered as a Domino effect, greatly reducing the value of the remaining assets.
Bitcoin, as the action demanded by investors to hold with the goal to profit from the constant price increase. It is believed that the technology of the blockchain and wide decentralization can take BTC to the category “digital gold”, the price of which will only grow.
The belief in a permanent increase in the cost of cryptocurrency received a separate name – “to” (takeoff of the course to the moon). It generates the phobia FOMO purchases, caused by the fear to receive less income, which ensures a high volatility, sustained multi-day demand for Bitcoin.
Low volatility, determined by the relative readings of the VIX indicator indicates the impending correction. It is believed that when the values of 40 and below, traders should be wary of collapse, which clearly comes after the fall of the indicator to the mark 20.
As soon as the first serious losses, investors think about hedging, and increased demand for options is reflected in the indices above 60, signaling about the bottom of the market.
The index of fear for Bitcoin is called LXVX, it is calculated at the prices of options on the bitcoin exchange for institutional investors Ledger X. no “casual traders”, which indicates the accuracy of the data on which while there is a large archive of historical quotations.
The current values LXVX are encouraging, showing that Bitcoin is at the beginning of growth, but cryptoseal has not yet passed, investors are still overly cautious, actively Hejira held coins BTC.
Last kryptonim took place with values of 40-45, the recovery rate for the Bitcoin was launched, when LXVX reached 75 points.
Indicator of levels of support and resistance Bitcoin
Exchange cryptocurrency Ledger X provides the ability to obtain one more indicator to determine levels of support and resistance Bitcoin. This conditional price zones where there is a high probability reversal.
If the quotes are growing, pre-defined resistance levels are used for partial or full profits. If the support zone is defined properly in the fall, you can try to make a purchase in the hope of a reversal for growth or rebound, that allows the trader to translate the position to breakeven, placing a pending order a stop loss at the entry price.
Levels of support and resistance is determined by the highest Open Interest (OI) – the number of option contracts that are open at a certain price Bitcoin. Its value together with the number of options recorded in the special table.
After column date (1) is the designation of a series of options with date of expiry (combustion/performance) contracts (2). It should take a series of short contracts, in this example, is July 26.
The validity of contracts month in which the data on Open Interest may change values on them reflect the 6th column of the table, on which are installed a filter, sorting the number of contracts in descending order.
Resistance levels Bitcoin contracts define the type of Call and support is Put. As the table shows, the immediate resistance was at $15,000, and support the fall in July has provided a level of $9500.
As far as the testimony of truthful, seen in the chart BTCUSD in July quotes unfolded from this price zone. To clarify, at what depth below support or above resistance can be lowered or raised the price, it is necessary to add or subtract from the price OI the current values of the Bid column (3) or the Ask (4).
The value of the described indicators is that they do not use “abstract formula”, the basis of their testimony are real variables that are directly related to the market of cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin. This enables the trader to get timely non-lagging signals, you know in advance about the impending pump, reliable determination of the possible stops of Panicale.