Weekly newsletter v.24 ”The trend is your friend…!”

Our conclusion last week was that the U.S. and Europe as well as Sweden saw out the need to consolidate further a certain period of time, but that there was a positive undertone with kind assistance from the greater part of Asia. Disquieting sign in the form of weakening of oil and basmetallpriser, a wobbly u.s. dollar and a positive development for the gold price in combination with high-valued company had, however, taken into account.

At the same time, we noted that it is easy to underestimate how long strong trends can be in power and when we studied the investerarkollektivets behavior, this was well in step with our positive view on the stock market performance and the conclusion was identical with the previous week, i.e. during the month of June, it is likely that the OMXS30 in tune with the development of the above markets will make a serious attempt to pass the high for the year. We were thus comfortable with our målkurs about 1700 points (now 1640) with the assessment that the customary weak säsongsmönstret during the summer can be challenged.

On the one hundredth when the Swedish stock exchange (OMXS30) on the same level as a week ago. This means that the consolidation/trendanpassningen is still in force, and that the market is perceived as boring. Behaviour as such, however, is nothing remarkable. The financial markets of all kinds typically move – even in a positive trend – sideways most of the time the actual uppgångsfaserna usually occurs during relatively short periods of time.

A stock exchange has changed the behavior patterns from the lateral to the trendande direction, however, is the broad US market, the S&P 500. The rise is creeping upward without major part, but the direction north is clear and we like that the rise is lågvolatil to his character, then just lågvolatila trends – both up and down – has a tendency to be unusually stubborn and persistent in nature. Of course we take nothing for granted, but so long as we are comfortable with the situation.

The united states

Grundtrenden for the wide Europaindexen is clearly positive, but as in Sweden, the market is dull at present. Patterns of behavior are different than in the united states, but also in Europe we like what we see. The rise after the French elections was explosive in nature and since the first week in may, i.e. in over a month’s time do the courses with weak negative undertone pulled down. Europe has thus managed to retain the greater part of the achieved the upturn and the positive dynamics is evident, i.e. the rise went on easily and quickly while the rates have to struggle and work their way down.

Our assessment was that the adjustment was over in the first half of June, i.e. today the 15/6 and that we then, in symbiosis with the development in the united states – saw a good opportunity for further rise. We are not overly focused on a specific date, but it is the underlying patterns of behavior that are important, and above all the development on the German stock exchange. The exchange rate movements in Germany will leave you wanting more when the index yesterday was up and sniffed at the ”all time high” even if the Daxindex not managed to close at a new signal.

Now we want to see that also the remaining european stock markets are starting to show their prowess. So far it is the smaller stock exchanges that provide subsidies. Greece, Portugal and Turkey, together with Hungary, Austria and our neighbouring countries Denmark and Finland have again begun to move on the upside. France, Italy and Spain, however, has not yet detached but in place of the march. This gives us no reason for concern, but we equips us with a little more patience, and maintain our forecast of a probable sommaruppgång.


After a rapid rise of around 9 %, China has shown less recoil. The modest decline occurred in the context of the recent peak from november 2016 were challenged and we see the loss as the customary profit-taking. Our assessment is that China, after two years of wandering in the wilderness has begun trenda up and we see an attractive potential on the upside

Japan is suffering from the weak dollar, but succeed despite this, stuck around the toppkurser. India gnaw currently down, which is no more than natural after the year-a rise of almost 22 % and the decline continues in the same peaceful way, we see this weakness as an interesting köpläge.

Hong Kong and south Korea are pushing south-east Asia on the north, but also Singapore and Taiwan are in positive though not as fully clear trends. Russia continues to lie in the förlorarspåret and has since the peak in January lost around 15 %. The development of the oil price gives no support either when the oil continues to be volatile with a negative direction.


The u.s. dollar and långräntan shows weakness, oil prices likely to fall further, gold will meet the continued interest and most of the base metals in addition to copper shows weakness at the same time as a certain degree of concern over the strength of the business cycle makes itself felt. We persist, however, with the adage that ”the trend is your friend” and our assessment is that the international börstrenderna exhibits a healthy pattern, why we remain comfortable with our målkurs about 1700 points (now 1640) for the Swedish stock exchange (OMXS30).






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