EUR/USD remains depressed despite the dovish Fed, what are the thresholds to watch?

Unlike Bitcoin and agrave; l’Gold which started the week rose sharply, the EUR/USD for its part failed to rise. not at all take advantage of speculation on a dovish pivot from the Fed, the currency pair still displaying an immediate negative profile, continuing the correction movement initiated by the Fed. last week.

After a 3-month high at 1.1018 last Wednesday, the Euro Dollar started to rise. à correct, until’à a hollow at; 1.0828 on Friday, and moves towards 1.0875 this Monday morning.

EUR/USD fails to reach take advantage of speculation on a dovish Fed pivotRemember that at the start of last week, the EUR/USD had benefited from dovish comments from a traditionally hawkish member of the Fed, Christopher Waller. However, the return of the currency pair above the key threshold will cause the currency pair to return above the key threshold. of 1.10 attracted sellers, and a correction has taken place, although expectations of a rate cut from the Fed remain high.

Indeed, the Fed's rate barometer shows this Monday that investors are taking into account a probability of of 65% that the Fed begins to lower its rates before the end of the first quarter of next year, compared to less than 50% a week ago.

However, this does not prevent EUR/USD from remaining behind for now. As for upcoming key events, this week will be focused on US employment, with the ADP (EPA:ADP) report on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday.

Disappointing data could convince traders that the FOMC is getting ready to move higher. lower rates, which could end up weighing on the Dollar enough for EUR/USD to make another attempt above 1.10.

  • Check in time real the results of the important statistics for EUR/USD in the economic calendar.

If on the contrary the data is revealed ;slow strength and cast doubt on the prospect of a more dovish Fed, the correction in the currency pair could worsen.

Technical thresholds at monitor on EUR/USD

From a graphical point of view, we note that the correction of the EUR/USD in recent days is not yet sufficient to cancel the underlying bullish bias on the daily chart.

On the other hand, a break below the support of 1.0830, and at even more so below the 200-day moving average at 1.0818 would constitute a bearish signal at 1.0818; do not neglect. In this case, the threshold of 1.08 and the 100-day moving average at 1.0778 will be the first important thresholds at monitor.

Finally, à On the rise, 1.09 is immediate resistance, before 1.0950, then the key threshold. of 1.10 and last week's high at 1.10. 1,1018.


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