Two weeks ago was our analysis that the Donald Trumps förehavande was not the beginning of a real nedgångsfas. However, we felt that the market could well experience a healthy cooling of a moderate character, which took away the current of overheating. We considered thus, that we were facing a nedgångsfas of greater dignity, but to the ongoing force of the recoil instead likely meant attractive köplägen in shares bounces in the context of clearly positive trends.
Since the beginning of march, the united states (S&P 500) fluctuated within a tradingintervall, where about 2 400 points form the top of the range while bottenläget are 50-75 basis points lower down. During the first half of may, the market is stuck in the top of the range. Our earlier conclusion was that patterns of behavior with very small fluctuations gave a clear impression that we considered was a concentrated effort, which would likely result in a continued rise.
The political turmoil that followed after the president of the rysslandskontakter was, however, a palpable nervousness and the u.s. stock market fell on a handelsdags from the top to the bottom of the range. The investor community, asked immediately if this unexpected, rapid and significant nedgångsdag was the introduction of the recoil of greater dignity.
The basic positive behaviour in the united states was still intact, but the tours around the Trump was threatening to put a wet blanket over the S&P 500. We usually say that the market is the place where the improbable has an unusually high probability of occurring.
The turbulence lasted only a few hours on the next trading day, and then turned the S&P 500 up and step six days in a row…! This means that we now find ourselves in almost exactly the same level as before the downturn and the obvious question is if the united states this time have the strength to continue on up and clearly pass the svårforcerade utbudsnivån around 2400 points.
If the united states manages to maintain the achieved level and is again stuck around the top of the range is the probability of clear high to the almost three months of sideways movement turns to start trenda up, which would have a positive impact on the european stock exchanges.
Our analysis of Europe two weeks ago was that the consolidation/rebound which logically should have come after the euphoria in the wake of the French elections occurred a little later than expected. Considering that the adjustment started from a higher level, we were set on it could sting a bit in the skin.
Our best forecast was a rebound of 2% to 4% provided that it took place in an orderly manner. Despite the fact that we were moderate, we were still too pessimistic and the recoil has so far amounted to less than 2 %. Europe as a whole gnaw to slow down, and this pattern of behavior indicates that there is underlying strength, but to överköptheten after the French valyran still do not have vädrats out.
There is thus still a trendanpassning and when this during the first half of June should be passed, we see – most likely in symbiosis with the development in the united states – a good probability for on the rise. Germany sets the usual tone for the rest of Europe, but keep an extra eye on the past problembörserna Greece, Portugal and Turkey as these are the markets which show the best momentum.
China has almost been disengaged from the global börstrenden and for more than a year fluctuated in a tradingintervall of bottenfaskaraktär. We usually repeat the mantra, never stop monitoring the boring markets for that is where the future of the winners are often found.
We were almost about to give up on China, but the latest weekly return of börsoptimism do that we start to monitor China, extra careful. It is too early to shout hello, but the chinese stock market can very well be a winner if it turns out that the newfound strength of genuine character and not just a temporary optimistic gust of wind. The situation is likely to have been finalised for next week’s publication.
Japan continues to hesitate because of the weakness of the dollar, while India belongs to the most stable and positive stock markets in the world. Hong Kong, south Korea and Taiwan trendar stubbornly upwards while Singapore currently find themselves somewhat in the backwater. The movements in the price of oil continues to be impulsive and svårprognosticerade, making the former so strong Rysslandsbörsen lost its luster and it will be likely before this recurs.
Our previous forecast that börsrekylen in Sweden should be limited and short-lived by their nature have fallen out well, and the modest decline created attractive köplägen in the earlier overbought shares. As well as for the united states and Europe see Sweden out of the need to consolidate further a certain period of time, but during the month of June, it is likely that the OMXS30 in tune with the development of the above markets will make a serious attempt to pass the high for the year.
Thus, we are comfortable with our målkurs about 1700 points (now in 1639) and believe that it is customary weak säsongsmönstret during the summer of this year may be challenged.