On Sunday celebrates signed her trettiotreårsdag. No, not a trettiotreårsdag in the traditional wording even if it would have been nice if this has been fallen. It is referred to here are the thirty-three years in the financial industry that started on a warm and sunny spring day in Stockholm, anno 1984. Then came a young man a native of the south of sweden with a degree from Lund and a bad sense of direction to the capital. A friendly locals pointing, however, with a smile out the road to the Park and SEB’s headquarters.
His career as a financial analyst, however, could have started on a much better way than with a hearty ranting already after hour on the job. An analysis of a listed company which was completely open on a desk catching my interest, and with great interest I took part of the content.
But, now it was so that no one touched anything that was on the mr stjärnmäklares table regardless of whether it was a börsanalys or a pencil. In particular, a landsortsbo with a småländsk accent to know their place in the hierarchy when he had the good fortune to work in the capitalist stronghold with Peter Wallenberg, Erik Penser, Fredrik Lundberg and other heavyweights who often could be seen in the discreet meeting rooms.
Well well, even if my first impression of the world of finance was slightly sprained improved this quickly when SEB very willingly allowed me and Henric Malmqvist form the Swedish Technical Analysts Association (STAF) in the bank’s dining room in november 1985. In addition, sponsored also the bank since all the meetings that we held in their premises.
After having driven the STAF in around ten years, followed for about ten years as a member of the board of IFTA (the international technical analysföreningen) and a couple of books about psychology importance in the stock market. It is the book ”A aktiespekulants psychology” published in 2004, together with my comrade in arms, Tony Ugrina, which was the starting point of our joint asset management company.
The last veckobreven has been very much on the importance to understand herd behavior in the stock market and it is with interest that I, the undersigned notes that the theses, which in 1998 were presented in the book ”stock Market Psychology” as soon as works even better today than it was 20 years ago. In our globalised and internet-based world it is easier and cheaper than ever to buy and sell, be emotional, follow their impulses, to do as everyone else does and follow the herd …
Our conclusion last week was that the results from the first round of the presidential election in France and the surprisingly positive reports from verkstadssektorn had given the renewed fuel to the stock market upturn. The Swedish stock exchange (OMXS30), as well as Europe, however, was short-term overbought, but there was an obvious strength beneath the surface.
After the ongoing break was completed and provided to the other valuppgången France had a positive outcome, there were good conditions for further upturn. We therefore adjusted, raised the bar by 50 basis points to indexnivån 1700, i.e. around the surge from 2015.
The expected break, however, was just a short break then the optimizer has assigned a firm grip on the flock (the investor community), and with few exceptions, trendar now the world’s stock markets upwards. Russia goes motvalls because of oil price weakness and stock market performance in China is currently quite disengaged from the global börstrenden.
Japan has, however, been given renewed hope in tune with the weakening of the yen and India, Hong Kong, Singapore, south Korea and Taiwan continue, as before, to trenda up.
In Europe, it is consistently positive attitude, and not least, the problemländerna Greece, Portugal and Italy stay at the forefront where the former market is one of the five best exchanges so far this year.
France shows no concern at all over all of the country’s challenges, but it is equally trendstarkt that it prosperous Germany. We had ideally wanted to see a clear consolidation before Europe continued to strive to the north, but it was just a break with a few days of profit-taking before buyers once again took the initiative.
In the united states rebalances the S&P 500 around the ”all time high”, but have not yet had the power to break up to new heights. Patterns of behavior, with very small fluctuations, however, provides a clear impression that we consider a concentration, which is likely to result in continued upward.
The long-term primärtrenderna in the greater part of the values is clearly positive, but several exchanges are short-term overheated. At the same time, it is easy to underestimate the power of strong trends. Sooner or later corrected, however, always trend underlying the slope to a more long-term sustainable direction, with a noticeable rebound as a result. We do not think, however, we still find ourselves at this korrigeringspunkt and choose to vigilantly slip with the stock market up (OMXS30) with a view to 1700 points (now 1649)