OMXS30 index is at a very important support level at about 1600. Establishes the index below this support level, particularly if this were to happen during the growing trading activity, the obtained strong sell signals. Key support levels are then at about 1540-1550. The OMXS30 is, however, oversold, the long trend is upward and säsongsmönstret is positive for the next few weeks. So the chances are good that this support will hold. Short-term buy signals are obtained if the index goes over the resistors at about 1612-1620. Long-term speaking, however, resistance at about 1657 is far more important.
The stockholm stock exchange fell last week in a slightly rising trading activity. Storbolagsindexet OMXS30 index went down by 2.6 per cent and closed the week at 1602,53. This year the rise on the OMXS30 has thus been reduced to +5.6%. And included separate distributions to +8.9 percent.
It was not only the Swedish OMXS30 index which went down last week. It was rather a general concern on the international financial markets after hawkish statements from several major central banks. The risks appear to have increased for the extremely stimulative monetary policy may be coming to an end.
Then, the central bank moneymakers, with time, come to spin much calmer and interest rates start looking up a little more normal levels. In this case, corporate profits begin to increase substantially to the values at many, as well as some high-value quoted shares be able to be defended.
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A risk factor that we in the previous analyses raised a number of times is also the weakness of the US dollar. Overall, like all equity markets, a strong US dollar. Most of the countries, namely export products that benefit from a rising dollar. And the united states themselves have so little imports and exports relatively to its huge economy, so they are disturbed not so much by a strong US dollar.
But in recent months has the US dollar been a sell signal and has at the time of writing had fallen to the of 8.43 SEC. As a comparison, the US dollar, in december of last year up on just over 9,40 SEC. Which was the highest level in 15 years.
The US dollar’s weakness can be seen against the background of president Trump’s increasing political problems to get through their to use reforms with tax cuts and a weaker-than-expected U.S. economy.
A OMXS30-share , however, is considered to benefit from a weaker US dollar is the HM. The stock was also one of the few shares that went up last week. Which in and of itself also had a lot to do with the last week reported better operating margins than expected and even made positive statements about their e-business activities.
Despite this week’s weakness is the long trend for the OMXS30 index is still upward. Its 200-day medeltalskurva, which is at about 1542, still points upwards, and the index still shows a long term pattern of rising bottoms and tops. But the more short-sighted have the OMXS30 stuck in a konsolideringsintervall between about 1600 and about 1657.
In the weekly chart above we also see that the OMXS30 index is now just above the important support level at about 1600. Establishes the OMXS30 during the 1600, especially if this would take place in a relatively high trading volume of at least 20-25 billion per day during the nedgångsdagarna, so obtained strong sell signals. In this case, we are aiming for the downs to a minimum of the intensities at about 1540-1550.
But as of yet no clear sell signals have been generated in this long-term perspective given. Rather, it is the OMXS30 index is now at a support the långsiktige investor can find offer a fine köpläge. A little weakness, however, can be traced also in this perspective, then, the long upward trend line in the weekly chart was broken last week. So the försiktige operator should probably be careful to make use of the stop on the support at about 1600 is broken.
To get new long-term interesting buy signals should OMXS30 during an increasing trading activity to establish itself above the resistance at about 1657. Obtained this aim we on a rise to, first and foremost, the old peak levels at about 1720.
Is obtained, however, buy or sell signals in a relatively low volume of trading, for example, clearly below 20 billion per day, becomes how this would be received by these more uncertain and the risk of false signals increases also significantly.
In the day chart below we see that the OMXS30 last week, in the konsolideringsintervallet between about 1600 and about 1657, received a number of short-term sell signals including intensities at about 1626, and approximately 1616 was broken.
Where we also see that the index has broken the long upward trend line (dashed line), which we set out in the weekly chart above. Sell signals came in a not so particularly low trading activity. Which means that we now increase the vigilance of new potential svaghetssignaler.
The short trend, which we define, following the slope of the 20-day medeltalskurvan (red curve), has also started to lean clearly down.
But the OMXS30 is now at the important support at about 1600, the stochastic indicator shows that the stock market is oversold and the stock exchange is now the next few weeks inside in a seasonally strong period. So after all, there are good opportunities for the index to stabilise at around about 1600 and facing upwards.
But when acting on the stock after technical analysis, it is important to not only set up the scenarios. But to make everything to act only when you have received confirmatory signals that these hypotheses are really looking to be able to be fulfilled. Get instead signals that the scenario does not hold, one must change themselves. Then you simply unpretentious setting a new hypothesis, and act accordingly.
We go then over to the even shorter timdiagrammet we see that the OMXS30 index has resistance levels at about 1612, about 1620.
So to get a confirmation that the support at about 1600 seem to be able to keep we would like to see a reversal – or any other type of signal. And then to the index establishes itself over the resistors at about 1612, about 1620.
This would also be done under a relatively high trading activity, we get very interesting buy signals. In this case, we are aiming for then on short-term gains to the first of all the resistors at approximately 1630, about 1645, and about 1657. Then, the opportunity also increases significantly for an outbreak above the important level at about 1657.
How should one then act in this situation? The short-term-focused investor, which the waking acted on last week’s sell signals, can tentatively take home the profit on any remaining nedgångspositioner at the support, about 1600. Alternatively, one can move down their stops relatively tight for such positions.
Establishes, however, the OMXS30 during the 1600 new act for the decline. Aim first and foremost on the downs to the support at about 1585. And in the other hand on the support area at about 1540-1550. Way however time tight stop. For the OMXS30 index is oversold, and a reaction above, can be both fast and powerful.
If the OMXS30 breaks over the resistors at about 1612, about 1620, the kortsiktige the operator then aim at the gains to, first and foremost, about 1630. Then at about 1645 and then to about 1657. Way even then, tight stops. For example, just below the nearest support level.
For more long-term focused investors, it may be important to note that, even if the OMXS30 index is now at an important support at about 1600 and that the long-term trends pointing up, the level of risk increased significantly in the last month. Handelsvolymsambanden, US dollar and number of shares and the international stock index have begun to give svaghetssignaler.
If you want to be careful , it may be time to sell part of their holdings at the gains. Especially if these gains would take place in a relatively low trading activity. Conversely, if the OMXS30 during a growing börsaktivitet establishes itself in the support at approximately 1600 obtained an important sell signal. In this case, probably the långsiktige investor is to consider to stop all or at least part of the even more long-term holdings.
