The OMXS30 Analysis v.24 ”OMXS30 hesitate at key levels”.

The OMXS30 is located in a kraftsamlande consolidation phase between about 1600 and about 1657. Would the index in an increasing trading activity to establish itself above the resistance at about 1657 obtained a strong buy signal. We aim then at a rise to about 1700-1720. Obtained instead a sell signal below support at about 1600, we aim for a decline to around 1540-1544. The long trends are on the upside. But at the same time warns against USD, long-term interest rates, handelsvolymsamband, seasonal pattern and the U.S. stock market for the decline.

The stockholm stock exchange had last week an irregular trend, with a slight tug upwards. Our Swedish storbolagsindex OMXS30 index went up 0.5 per cent and ended the week at 1654,80. This year is thus the development of the index of +9.1%. And +12.5% including secluded dividends.

The stock market had a kursmässigt a pretty easy week, despite the election in the Uk, the questioning of the former FBI director and the ECB meeting in Brussels. Nothing seems to be raw on the Swedish stock market’s strength.

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However, there are some warning signs that a less favourable market conditions may be at the time. A part nedgångsdagar on the stock exchange in the past month had a relatively high volume of trading. It is show that sales on the stock exchange started to wake up to life and to the purchase page may not dominate in the same way as before.

The US dollar and long term interest rates have also been nedgångssignaler. Signaling a concern in the financial markets for an economic slump. Even the otherwise so strong up trendande the NASDAQ Composite Index is now starting to have signals that a downward reversal may have started.

But so long as the long-term trend for the OMXS30 stubbornly upward. Which it has been since last summer. The index shows a long-term pattern of rising tops and bottoms and its 200-day medeltalskurva also pointing up.

More the short term seen as , however, the OMXS30 in a kraftsamlande phase of consolidation. Important support levels are at about 1600 and the resistance is at about 1657.

The OMXS30 get interesting new buy signals on the index in an increasing trading activity, preferably with börsomsättningar at well over 20-25 billion per day during the uppgångsdagarna, are establishing themselves across the resistor at about 1657. In this case, we aim for a rise to in the first place about 1700-1720.

If the OMXS30 instead establishes below the support level at about 1600 get the index sell signals. Especially if any decline occurs in the high trading volume becomes säljsignalen important. In this case, we aim for a decline to at least down to the support area around around 1540-1544. In the other hand down to about 1500.

Obtained the buy or sell signals in a relatively low trading activity, however, the kurspotentialerna more uncertain. In addition, increasing then the risk of false signals.

The Stochastic indicator is starting to come up to the overbought levels. There is no sell signal in itself, then the index can remain overbought for a longer period of time if the come into a strong trend. But the risk is increasing because of downward recoils in the upward trend.

The short-term säsongsmönstret also points to a certain nedgångsrisk until midsummer, roughly. After midsummer, then tend to the stock exchange to have a strong period. In order to later reach a peak sometime in July or in August. But this is just a typical seasonal pattern. It is not true exactly each year.

In timdiagrammet we see also that the OMXS30 get short-term sell signals if the support levels at about 1640, about 1636, and about 1624-1626 broken. Obtained such a sell signal, you can aim at a short-term decline, first and foremost, down to the next support level.

One is short-term focused you can otherwise in the current situation, see the area between the support at about 1640 and the resistors at about 1650-1657 as a tradingintervall. Thus, buy at support, sell at resistance. Stop loss on this strategy on the OMXS30 and establishes itself outside the tradingintervallet.

Is one more long-term focused and we think it can be good to consider that even if the long term trends is still pointing upwards, is the level of risk increased significantly in the recent past.

Handelsvolymsambanden, säsongsmönstret, the dollar, long-term interest rates and the NASDAQ Composite Index has begun to warn of the problem. Are you careful of maybe you gradually want to start selling of the index and the shareholding at the gains.

However, if the OMXS30 would begin to break down during the rising börsomsättningar it enough for the försiktige investor is to more specifically sell long-term holdings.

Would, however, OMXS30 establish itself above the resistance at about 1657 in a relatively high trading activity affects this signal out of the previous warning signs. In this case, we aim for a rise to in the first place about 1700-1720 on the OMXS30 index.

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