According to Euler Hermes, the turnover of the French companies are expected to grow +2.2% in 2017 and 2018, after +1.3% in 2016. The world leader in credit insurance, believes that this acceleration is due to a double effect of volume-to-value. On the one hand, the real growth in French is expected at +1.5% in 2017 (+1.1% in 2016). Its main engine will be household consumption, which is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth. On the other hand, 2017 will mark the great return prices in the French economy.
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“The rise in oil prices from 44 USD / bbl in 2016 at 57 USD in 2017 (forecast Euler Hermes) and the acceleration of the real growth is expected to reinvigorate the French inflation as early as this year. Thus, the nominal growth is expected at +2.5% in 2017 and 2018, after +1.6% in 2016. Finally, the rebound in activity and prices will represent a reinforcement of capital for the turnover of the business traffic, which are expected to start rising as early as this year, ” said Stéphane Colliac economist in charge of France at Euler Hermes.
The expected improvement in nominal growth in French could also relieve the margins of the companies. After a stagnation to 31.4% during the last two quarters of 2016, the return to pre-crisis levels no longer seems so far away. “The increase in selling price will inevitably be a boost to margins. Similarly, the economic measures planned by the new government, such as the replacement of the SIEC by a decrease of 6 points in social security contributions, are of such a nature to support them. This is why we expect an improvement in margin rate, 32.5% by the end of 2017, a return to the average level of 2000-2007. It is a positive signal : even if the level of 2007 (33.5 per cent) is still far away, companies are on the right track ! ” concludes Stéphane Colliac.
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