The EUR/USD remains on the rise, what are the next barriers and catalysts ?

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The EUR/USD pair remains well directed this Monday, after she had already posted strong gains on Thursday and Friday last.

Recall that the main theme in the origin of the rise of the Euro is the optimism linked to the hope of a trade agreement between China and the United States.

After several rumors of blockages in the negotiations in the beginning and in the middle of the week, the end of the week was the opportunity to statements are encouraging, including Larry Kudlow, the economic adviser of the White House, which has shown that China and the United States are close to an agreement, stating that ” the mood music is good “.

The secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, has also boosted market optimism at the end of the week, by telling Fox Business that it was highly probable that the White House reach an agreement on the first phase of a commercial agreement with China. “We’re down to the last details,” he said.

The increase shown by the EUR/USD since the re-opening of weekly forex yesterday evening appears to relate to comments from the chinese ministry of Commerce over the weekend, according to which a telephone conversation between the vice-Prime minister Liu He and the negotiators US Lightizer and Mnuchin had been “constructive” on Saturday.

In this context, the EUR/USD has thus marked a new peak at 1.1067 this morning, compared with a low of 1.0988 last Thursday.

Technical analysis EUR/USD

From a graphical point of view, it will be recalled that the pair EUR/USD has crossed its moving average 100 and 200 hours in the last week, two bullish signals that promote a continuation of the increase.

At this point, the next obstacle and goal potential is the area composed of the moving average 100 days currently 1.1093 and the psychological threshold of 1.11.

Beyond that, 1.1125, 1.1150 will be the first resistances to take into account, before a threshold is more important to 1.1175-80, the resistance that has blocked the rally of the Euro at the end of October and beginning of November, and the current location of the 200-day moving average (1.1176), and then the psychological threshold of 1.12.

In case of return of the downside, the moving averages of 200 and 100 hours at 1.1035 and 1.1021 will be the first media potential, before the psychological threshold key 1.10, and the low of last week at 1.0988.

It should be noted about the prospects technical course, short-term the EUR/USD as Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) has noted that ” the price action of Thursday was a significant change and we are considering a rebound in the range of 1,1080/1,1095 in the very short term. This is the place where the moving average 55 days, which must be regained to be able to consider a new test that is viable in the highest of 1,1180 recently reached. “

For its part, UOB notes that ” the impetus for the increase is improved and the bias is always on the rise. From there, at least a movement below 1,1025 (the next support is at 1,1010), the euro is likely to strengthen to 1,1075. The next resistance 1,1100 is likely to be not taken into account”.

What are the events that are likely to influence the EUR/USD this week ?

Finally, it should be noted that although this day of Monday, does not anticipate any event that could influence the Euro or the Dollar (outside of potential statements regarding the trade war), the rest of the week will include several appointments to key.

We will give special attention to Minutes of the Fed’s Wednesday evening, and then to those of the ECB on Thursday, before the PMI indexes are preliminary for the month of November in Europe and the United States Friday.

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