The pair EUR/USD remains hesitant Monday morning, stuck under resistance at 1.1175-80, while a key event could influence trade tonight.
The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, who officially started his mandate at the head of the central bank on 1 November, will for the first time the opportunity to speak publicly in the framework of his new duties, and the investors waiting eagerly for his statements, to refine their expectations in terms of monetary policy.
The gift of Draghi as Lagarde has been launching an effort calling for fiscal stimulus concerted action to stimulate the economy, suggesting that monetary policy cannot do anything if it is not combined with other measures.
There is probably a line that Ms. Lagarde will continue to follow. And if it is sufficiently explicit that the ECB will depend less on the rate cuts in the future, the Euro will be greatly enhanced.
For the moment, the pair EUR/USD is facing a strong resistance at 1.1175-80, shortly before the psychological threshold of 1.12, to be considered as significant resistance, as the 200-day moving average lies not far away at 1.1195.
In other words, the area 1.1175-1.12 is regarded as a key obstacle, which is blocking for the moment the increase.
Néanmoin, from a technical point of view, the possibility of further increases remain open, with a trend which remains positive, and a moving average 100 hours which is placed above the moving average 200 hours (bullish signal) in the last week.
The bias will remain positive as long as the moving average 100-day, currently at 1.1125, is conserved. Under this threshold, 1.11 will be the next support, before 1.1060-70, a threshold below which we can consider that the trend has turned downward.