The EUR/USD pair has been one of the big winners following the testimony dovish tone of the boss of the Fed Jerome Powell before Congress on US yesterday, with a rise which is accentuated until this morning with a peak of 1.1280.
Recall that the Chairman of the Fed, in sum, confirmed market expectations of a rate cut at the end of the month, as investors were beginning to question this perspective in the face of more reassuring data, and the report of the NFP of last Friday.
Not only is it now more than ever guaranteed, in the eyes of the market, that the Fed will lower its rate by 0.25%, but the speculation on the possibility that the Fed may go beyond, with a possible rate cut of 0.50%, or other rate cuts of 0.25% before the end of the year were also included.
Several big banks have actually raised their forecasts following the intervention of Powell, and all are anticipating that the Fed will not stop at this reduction of 0.25% scheduled for 31 July.
After several days of growth, the about Powell have therefore significantly reduced the Dollar yesterday, for the benefit of the EUR/USD pair.
However, from a graphical point of view, it is still too early to speak of trend reversal to the upside. For this, the Euro-Dollar will have to confirm a break above 1.13 at least.
The downside, the first support potential is the moving average of 200 hours to 1.1260, before 1.1250, then the moving average 100 hours at 1.1228, and the psychological threshold of 1.12.
Finally, it will be recalled that a few statistics will be likely to influence the exchanges this afternoon, including the CPI-US for the month of June and the inscriptions weekly unemployment US, in addition to several interventions from members of the Fed that you will find in the economic calendar.