Råvarubrevet v.39 ”Oil soars to 26-månadershögsta…”

The oil has been properly with the fuel and rushed up to 26-månaderhösgsta just under 60 dollars, as a result of the unrest in Turkey. The base metals have continued to show weaknesses during the week that has passed, similarly, precious metals lost ground in the context of an ever stronger dollar. Risk appetite has, however, suffered a blow, after the uncertainty surrounding north Korea blossats up in a week…


As a result of the unrest in Turkey rushed oil on Tuesday, and thus continued his journey further north after the previous eruption over 56 dollars.

Brent crude is trading right now around 26-month high, just under 60 bucks, after Turkey threatens to put an end to the kurdish oil that goes over the Turkish territory, as a result of Kurdistan holds a referendum on independence from Iraq.

Kurdistan can currently deliver up to 500.000 – 600.000 barrels per day to the Turkish medelhavshamnen port of Ceyhan.

In the shade around the Turkey, did not give the OPEC meeting on Friday, any fruit, and thus has currently not taken any decision on extending the agreement on production cutbacks.

The interesting thing is that we will eventually get some form of consolidation, followed by a major eye-opener.

The automotive industry, which accounts for a large part of the oil consumption goes more and more towards electric vehicles, as will be pv all the more attractive when the cost is significantly fallen.

According to a report from the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) launched an initiative called The SunShot Initiative in 2011, whereupon the case was set for 2020, 2030 to make solproducerad energy more accessible and cost-effective. According to the DOE, is the trip on a good road, and several goals are already achieved three years ahead of what was put up as target by the year 2020.

We will eventually move completely to renewable energy, or the will need for oil to persist in the long term? One thing is for sure, and that is that several oil-producing countries will have problems unless the oil price strengthened in the future. The cost of oil production is, for many countries already today higher, or around break-even levels…

Within the base metals has , this week, we continue to experience weaknesses, which is also reflected in the leading companies in its sector, as for example the Swedish steel producing SSAB. Even iron ore, which previously lost ground, it has continued to experience a dominant force.

Among the precious metals continues, the focus will be on the gold in the usual way. Gold has now for several days been traded for 1300 dollars, but in the wake of the unrest around north Korea has begun to shine again.

This has temporarily taken over the concern mirrored in the connection with the stronger us dollar, which is currently traded around 8.10 against the Swedish krona at the time of writing.

The u.s. central Bank lifted even the previous week, a more hawkish position, which has been the contributing factor to the stronger dollar which precipitated the gold. Fed Funds Rate pointing right now at 71.4% probability of a rate hike 13 december, up from 51.5 per cent in the previous week.

Altercation between north Korea and the united states continued to have escalated somewhat during the current week.

”North korea’s foreign minister Ri Yong Ho said that it interpreted the Donald Trumps tweets at the weekend that a declaration of war, and that the united nations charter gives north Korea the right to shoot down the american bombers even if they are not in north Korean airspace. White house press secretary Sarah Sanders rejected the claim that the united states had declared war.” reported the News agency Directly.

This was followed up by the US’s national security adviser, HR McMaster, who said that the country has four or five different scenarios of how the crisis with north Korea be resolved, in part ”is nastier than the other”. Even the Pentagon stated that Trump has, when necessary, disposal at a ”massive arsenal”.

Also commented China’s foreign minister Wang Yi on Tuesday that the situation on the Korean peninsula is in a ”very dangerous position”.

Among the food continues cocoa to muster since the previous week, and look all the more interesting, and continues to reinforce our earlier position that we will get an outbreak to the north.

We take a closer look at the wheat below this week, which was a minor outbreak and the establishment of the MA 50.

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Drop the oil go over $ 60?!?

Oil has continued its journey further north after the earlier establishment of the short-term technical resistance level at 56 dollars. On Tuesday came another sharply rus, by the uncertainty surrounding Turkey, which threatened to choke off the oil flow between the northern Iraq and Kurdistan.

The oil has a week ago has risen over +6.50%, and trade at the time of 59.17 the dollar sees oil out to be able to challenge 60 dollars seriously.

Sentimental heltalsnivå, certainly yes, but at the same time is 65 dollars for a clearer price level, whereupon the dragkrafterna should help, so long as köpstyrkan remains in the picture.

Any profit taking after four days of rise, means that we are expected to get support from buyers at the now heavy technical support level at 57 dollars.

Attractive rebound in the nickel on the heavy intensity!

Nickel has, like its relatives in the base metals continued to lose ground in september, with support from the waning strength of China.

Concerns about a slowing momentum in the country’s economy, is the basis for the acid introduction in september.

Nickel itself has through two rounds of lost ground. First, we, under the technical nyckelnivån at 11 900, and then 11 200.

This week we were as low down as 10 450 and tested the heavy-duty technical support level, as a year ago, back notes greatly with volume. This means that we now have two attractive recoils at the challenging, and noted the non-existent volume as buyers stepped into the picture at this price level.

Short-term looks nickel interesting, we consider the probability high, we get a short-term movement up to 11 200.

Potential further weakness is expected to have proper support from buyers around the 10 000 level.

Gold rebounds at the technical key levels…

As a result around a declining concern between north Korea and the united states has the gold lost ground in september.

Low interest after the increased risk appetite from investors, gave us a brief dip below 1300 dollars. On Tuesday traded again we will be over this heltalsnivå, with support by the turmoil in the new blossats up around north Korea.

It is with continued wet blanket concerns remain about north Korea, and the statement from the us president, Donald Trump is doing hardly make things better, or the UN sanctions for the part.

Technically stopped short-term 50-day moving average, a further decline in 1290 dollars, and after two days of trading under, it was time to step up to 1310 dollars on new.

In the short term, we can possibly get an abreaction to the u.s. dollar, and the escalation of unrest around north Korea. This means that we raise our gaze to 1330 dollars, and even for a new challenging of the high for the year at 1350 dollars if the situation does not improve shortly.

Wheat establishes itself over the long-term fork in the road MA 200!

After a sharp decline since the summer starts wheat finally look interesting again.

In the short term, we got to trade during the 4.30 dollars, followed by a steady rise to its current 4.54 dollars.

Higher tops and bottoms has given back to a positive position, which we, however, have liked it to gotta for himself a bit more to await some form of confirmation.

Now wheat has established itself over both the heavy long-term partner in the form of MA 200, then MA 50 to now challenge the MA 100 seriously.

We close above the MA 100, followed by 4.65 dollars, it is very signs that we will get a further trip to the north, initially 4.90 dollars.

We would, however, lose the momentum from the köpstyrkan, for failing to close above these levels, the risk increases that it will be renewed weakness, and instead see an attractive säljläge for a decline to 4.35 dollars on new.

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