Råvarubrevet v.27 ”the Dollar puts imprint on the market…”

The oil continues its journey further north, and the challenge now after the sharp rise technical key level at $ 50. Base metals have been properly pushed from the strong statistics from China, but the question is whether more is available to download when the u.s. dollar has been weak, is now recovering itself all the more since two days back. The recurring question whether Trump-the administration shall be able to deliver the reforms continue to stand in the spotlight, and is at the same time, a regular wet blanket on the parts of the market, including the u.s. dollar, which puts its imprint on the market.


Brent crude has continued further north with over +8% since the previous week. Thus we leave now 10 månaderslägsta behind us, and the challenge now instead of 50 dollars on new.

Oil production within OPEC has increased during June, and amounted to 280 000 barrels per day, which is the highest listing, according to a survey from Reuters. Despite this, we note now 9 days of trading on plus.

Even if a high compliance around the produktionsfrysning is continued in the oil-producing countries in Opec, has both Nigeria and Libya continued to increase their production.

We have previously highlighted, the question mark and concern about how these two countries will affect the total output, and we simply have to wait and see how OPEC is going to set itself in the future.

Will we get a further phase of produktionsfrysning, reduced production, or how will it really emerge?

Among base metals, we have received positive fuel from China, which on Friday delivered a better than expected PMI statistics. In addition to this came the positive news over the weekend that the chinese bond market, the world’s third largest, is now slowly opening up for foreign buyers via Hong Kong. As a result of this, we note now a strong growth in several base metals, including nickel, which has risen +3.38% a week ago.

With a weak american dollar is the question of whether more is available to download on the upside among the base metals, or if we are going to see pressure from a rising dollar, if the current rebound, which lasted two days is the beginning of a new positive attitude.

Fed Funds Rate exhibit not any greater confidence among investors, and pointing rather that we get a rate hike in January 2018, which further sets of questions.

The dollar was previously pressed, then the us senate had to postpone its vote on the reform of the health insurance, until after the 4th of July weekend.

This has also fired on further concerns about whether Trump-the administration will be able to deliver on promised reforms.

”The delay of the vote on health care reform highlights the difficulties to implement the measures and traveling question mark over whether president Trump may implement stimulus measures and tax cuts,” said Janu Chan, seniorekonom at St George Bank in Sydney, to Bloomberg News in the middle of the previous week.

Already in the previous week got the euro fuel when the ECB president Mario Draghi hinted that the ”certain parameters” in the monetary policy can be adjusted.

The riksbank left the as expected unchanged interest rate announcement on Tuesday, and the repo-rate path was increased even in the short term, and indicates now a bottom of -0.50 percent in the third quarter of this year to the second quarter of 2018, the News agency reported Directly. The first rate hike is expected in mid-2018.

The next policymöte of the ECB is not until 20 July, and for the Federal Reserve, it is 26 July.

The japanese yen strengthened during the Tuesday morning after the news that north Korea has postponed an intercontinental ballistic missile.

President of the united states Donald Trump commented on the incident on Twitter by writing ”this guy” (north Korean leader Kim Jong-Un) doesn’t have anything better to do with his life.

”It is hard to believe that south Korea and Japan will put up with this for very long. Maybe China will act hard against north Korea and put an end to this nonsense once and for all!”, tweeted Donald Trump.

The rise in the us dollar in the past two trading sessions has also contributed pressure to the gold, which notes a decline of the whole -1.57% since the previous week, and is now trading around 1 222 dollars.

Among foods, we see several interesting use cases for new positive attitude, and soybeans are one of these. As a result of low expectations on the utbudsnivåer, has this food been an outbreak and stepped over several technical key levels, and the challenge now heavy resistance level.

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Brent challenges the MA 50 after the sharp recovery.

Since the previous week, brent crude continued to be strengthened, and notes a rise of +8.53%. Since the turn of the year, however, the semester down -12.51%.

Oil is now trading at 49.70 dollars, and challenge the short-term 50-day moving average.

After a clear establishment of the technical nyckelnivån at 49 dollars, will now be opened up, unless nothing negative occurs in the form of significant deviations from the expected inventory levels or the OPEC statement, we can now come to step over the 50 dollars.

We are cautiously positive outlook on the oil, and waiting for the establishment of 50 dollars, where the MA 50 is located. This, in turn, could mean that we then get a trip further north to challenge the technical resistance level at 53 dollars.

Underlying support is awaiting then in the past just under 46 dollars.

Nickel challenge heavy resistance level!

After a sur development during the second quarter, ended June by turning on the vibes.

A week ago, notes nickel, up +3.38%, with fuel from China after the strong PMI statistics and news that it will now open up the bond market via Hong Kong.

Nickel is now trading at the technical resistance level 9 330 dollars, but it is a little difficult to judge location. On the one hand, dominates the buyer since earlier in June, but at the same time, we have been positive progressions in the dollar, which started to climb to the north past two trading sessions.

Would we get a weakening in the u.s. dollar, then the chances are great that we can establish ourselves over the resistance level, in the long term, are turning their attention to 10 000. The risk however is that we short-term getting a rebound to challenge the MA 50, which is just over 9 100 dollars.

Gold on the way to challenge 1200 dollars…?

Our assessment was already in the previous week that the likelihood was increased that we could get a rebound at the underlying trend line.

Unfortunately, we got a breakthrough on the Monday of our underlying trend line, which means that the gold is now lost -1.57 per cent in a week, now trading at 1 222 dollars.

In addition to this, it is now trading gold, even just in the long-term partner in the form of MA 200, and opens the now rather up the risk that we may get to see a trip further south to challenge the 1 200 dollars in the future.

As we highlighted earlier, the central banks like the Federal Reserve has become more hawkish, but in spite of this is expected no direct interest rate hikes in the year, according to the Fed Funds Rate, which poses the question of the rebound we were looking for the previous week instead can come at 1 200 dollars, in order to shake out the sellers seriously.

Just as we highlighted in both our weekly OMXS30 analysis and our daily morgonbrev, has several warning signs have arisen, and whether it would now appear that we will get a correction in the stock market, with a decline. Yes then can the gold be more attractive, and will mean that investors seeking protection of this precious metal.

Time for a new tag in the u.s. dollar?

When it comes to the u.s. dollar, we have experienced a clearly depressed mood in recent times. Not least, we are experiencing question marks in the united states.

The increase in interest rates stundas not until January, if one is to rely on the Fed Funds Rate, and the reforms and tax cuts which is expected to be implemented, yes these are challenged all the more.

The u.s. dollar has over the past two trading sessions now strengthened against the crown, and turn thus, the soundbites, after earlier challenging of the heavy technical support level at 8.40.

This opens up for us in the short term can get a rise, and with a little extra strength and momentum to challenge the technical resistance level at 8.75.

Positive outbreaks in soybeans!

As the title says, we have had a clear positive attitude in soybeans.

Not least have we stepped over the short-term 50-day moving average, but we are successful at the same time establish us above the heavy resistance at 9.40 dollars at the same time that an outbreak occurred of the above declining trend line.

Along with the strength from a rising dollar last two days we have in addition challenged the MA 100 and the next resistance level is at 9.80 dollars.

Soybeans have risen throughout the +6.5% on a week, and since it now appeared that the USDA highlighted a concern around the lower planting, which may affect the offer we believe that this can open up, so that we can get a further outbreak and the establishment of the heavy resistance level at 9.80.

Long-term MA 200 waits around 9.90 dollars, and is expected to thus also provide a counter-thrust. Even the sentimental heltalsnivån at 10.00 dollars will also in such a scenario, the help with really heavy resistance.

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