The warming climate will bring changes to the geography of the globalization commercial ? The opening in the Arctic, “thanks” to the melting ice, new routes specific to the navigation container raises as many fantasies as repulsion. However, “these new roads will only have a modest impact on world trade,” says a study just published by the Centre for prospective studies and international information (Cepii).
As is noted by the authors, Jules Hugot and Camilo Umana Dajud, the discovery of a Northern route to access Asia, is a holy Grail of european navigators for centuries : as early as the Seventeenth century, the british explorer Henry Hudson sought tirelessly the famous ” Northern passage “, that he never managed to borrow because they can crack the ice.
Climate change is disrupting the deal : last summer, temperatures were anomalously high in the arctic circle, exceeding in places 30 °C., And for the first time, between the end of August and end of September, a container ship of Maersk, the first shipping company in the world, has connected St. Petersburg from Vladivostok, along the coasts of siberia. Until then, only vessels of smaller size had travelled this road, now open from July to October.
Commercial gains limited
The letter from the Cepii noted that three new pathways would open up to navigation permanently by the year 2050 and beyond. In addition to the one that runs along the Siberia (North-East passage), another route that borders the northern coast (the northwest passage), the two leading to the Pacific ocean via the Bering strait. A third route, finally, the Transpolaire, will connect the Atlantic to the Pacific through the Arctic ocean.
In many cases, these passages will reduce actual distances, compared…