In Italy, the ruling coalition attacks little to the weaknesses of the bottom of the economy

You will have to choose. While the Italian government is preparing to unveil its prospects of growth and public deficit in 2019, this is now little doubt : the Movement 5 Stars (” antisystème “) and the League (far-right) will not be able to keep all of their campaign promises.

Creation of a citizen’s income, rethinking of retirement, or even introduction of a “flat tax” (income tax, single rate)… “These proposals are difficult to reconcile and expensive, because estimated at nearly 100 billion euros in their together,” says Lorenzo Codogno, former chief economist of the Italian Treasury, now professor at the London School of Economics.

In addition to the tensions with Brussels and the risk of runaway markets around the Italian debt, another question irks economists : the program outlined by the team of the president of the board Giuseppe Conte, cocktail of tax cuts and redistribution is more generous, will he have the economy back on track ? “Nothing is less sure, fearing Nicola Nobile, by Oxford Economics, in Milan. Prior to responding to the structural difficulties of the country, it must first make the right diagnosis. “One of the two populist parties is it good ?


Even if, for the past few weeks, they have softened the tone, they blamed to a large extent the problems of the Peninsula to the single currency and the straightjacket of the eu budget. It is true that at first sight the stalling of the economy transalpine corresponds roughly to the introduction of the euro, at the turn of the years 2000.

At the time, the country has been hit hard by competition to low-cost China, and the countries of eastern Europe. No longer able to rely on the weapon of currency devaluation to re-inflate a little bit of their competitiveness, SMES are struggling to adapt. They do not invest enough,…

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