The state budget will show a deficit – a nettolånebehov – 17 billion in the year, then turn to a surplus of 124 billion by 2018. It shows the national debt office’s new forecast. The surplus next year was due to the Swedish national debt office assumes that the loans taken up to the Riksbank to strengthen the foreign exchange reserve begins to be paid back. Thereby reducing the state’s borrowing in foreign currency considerably.
Apart from the effect of the decreased lending to the Riksbank, the changes are in the forecast for the budget balance and government borrowing small. The state’s financial savings, which is a better indicator of the underlying central government finances than the budget balance, showing a surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP this year and 0.2 per cent in 2018.
– We assume that the government’s proposal to draw down foreign exchange reserves will become a reality, and then we get a large budget surplus and a public debt reduction next year, ” says riksgäldsdirektör Hans Lindblad. The underlying central government finances shows a smoother development and the economy is growing in a stable pace.
The Swedish national debt office expects GDP growth of 2.3 per cent in 2017 and to 2.1 per cent in 2018. A clearer recovery in the world contributes to a good development of exports in the near future, while domestic demand remains strong. The unemployment rate is expected to level out at 6.5%.
Small prognosförändringar apart from the loans to the Riksbank
The budget deficit for 2017 is 3 billion lower in the new forecast than in the forecast from February. It is due to lower expenditure on, inter alia, labour market and social security. The reduced expenditure is partly countered by that even tax revenues are revised down.
The forecast for 2018 is basically unchanged apart from the decreased lending to the Riksbank. The Swedish national debt office have taken up foreign currency loans on the overall, the equivalent of 249 billion for the Riksbank’s behalf. In march, the government proposed that this on-lending should be phased out. The Swedish national debt office expects the forecast to lending to the Riksbank will cease as loans mature. In 2018, it’s on the maturing loans on the 106 billion.
When the loans to the Riksbank maturing reduces the national debt. At the end of 2018 is estimated the national debt be 1 217 billion, compared with the 1 354 billion a year earlier. It means that debt as a share of GDP will decrease from 30 percent to 26 percent.
Reduced borrowing in foreign currency and treasury bills
In 2017 continues the Swedish national debt office, as before, to refinance the loans to the Riksbank maturing. When this borrowing ceases in 2018, is planning the national debt rather than to issue bonds in foreign currency for the equivalent of 17 billion for its own account. This is done in order to maintain a presence on the international capital market.
In order to create space to resume valutaupplåningen for its own account, drag the national debt down, borrowing in treasury bills. Offer per auction decreases from an average of 10 billion to 7.5 billion from the end of February 2018.
Borrowing in government bonds and realobligationer is unchanged compared with the previous forecast.
Borrowing (sek billion)
The previous forecast in parentheses
2016
2017
2018
Government bonds
81
52 (52)
50 (50)
Realobligationer
16
13 (13)
13 (13)
Treasury bills
84
110 (110)
60 (80)
Bonds in foreign currency
61
68 (68)
17 (105)
-
of which on-lending to the Riksbank
61
68 (68)
0 (105)
In a box in the report Statsupplåning – forecast and analysis to 2017:2 highlights the Swedish national debt office how newcomers are handled in the labour force survey (LFS). The conclusion is that the recent years increase in the number of asylum seekers leads to that the LFS overestimates employment.
Contact
Robert Sennerdal, press secretary, 08 613 46 94
Statsupplåning – forecast and analysis to 2017:2
