Forex : The point on the current context and key events of this week

The continuing uncertainty as to the prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China seems likely to prevent the forex traders to take positions in directional important before the holiday of Thanksgiving, this Thursday.

Despite the week shorter, the economic calendar american will honor the production and the consumption. Investors will be watching the PMI regional manufacturing in search of any sign of a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. The data on consumer confidence Tuesday before Black Friday, two events that will provide an overview of the strength of consumer spending. The durable goods orders and the second reading of third quarter GDP will also be closely monitored and, in the euro zone, preliminary data on Friday on inflation will be top of the list of priorities.

The u.s. dollar appreciated against a basket of currencies on Friday, after the acceleration in manufacturing activity and services in the United States in November, which strengthened the economic outlook.

IHS Markit said that its index’s “flash” purchasing managers for the manufacturing industry rose from 51.3 in October to 52.2 in November, while the PMI services, preliminary from 50.6 last month to 51.6 this month.

The us dollar index, which compares the dollar to six major currencies, was up 0.28% 98,17 at the end of the day.

The greenback received an additional boost from data showing that growth in the euro zone has almost stagnated this month, as activity in the services sector dominant of the block increased at a much slower pace than expected.

The euro has dropped 0.3% against the greenback to 1,1021 Friday night.

“This combination is what drives the dollar a little higher,” said Vasily Serebryakov, a strategist FX at UBS in New York.

Despite the Friday gains, the dollar remained confirms to the range last sessions. For the week, the dollar index rose 0.3 %.

The dollar was little changed versus the yen on Friday evening at 108,64.

“The dollar is relatively expensive, but I think the market is really looking for signs of a more robust recovery of global growth to revive interest in certain currencies outside the United States, but the messages we receive are still a little mixed, both in terms of PMI and the new on the trade,” said Serebryakov.

The leaders of the United States and China have both pointed out on Friday, their desire to sign the first trade agreement, and defuse a war tariff of 16 months that shook the financial markets and slowed global growth.

But the trade negotiations could fail if the american president Donald Trump signs a bill supporting pro-democracy protesters of Hong Kong or if the u.s. warships will continue to sail close to islands claimed by China in the South China sea.

Elsewhere, the pound sterling weakened on Friday, recording its biggest daily loss in nearly three weeks after the PMI data that show that british companies have suffered their biggest slump since mid-2016, with a caution increasing before the general elections of 12 December.

As a new week starts, has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the currencies of Forex.

Monday, 25 November

Germany – economic sentiment IFO

Tuesday, 26 November

New Zealand – retail Sales

US – CB consumer Confidence ; new home sales ; Richmond manufacturing PMI ; speech of the chairman of the federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell

Wednesday, November 27

USA – durable goods Orders ; preliminary GDP ; Chicago PMI ; consumer price index PCE core ; personal expenses ; sales of homes pending, and beige book from the Fed.

Thursday 28 November

Germany – CPI preliminary

USA – The markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday

Friday 29 November

Euro – Zone CPI Estimate for November

Canada – GDP ; inflation in the prices of raw materials

–Reuters contributed to this report.

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