The ECB meeting yesterday, which included some elements hawkish in the middle of the other details are more dovish, has had an upward impact on the EUR/USD pair, but not enough for the pair confirms a break above the resistance of 1.13, which has blocked several attempts to rise this week.
Although with a few surprises of nature to support the Euro, as a revision upward of the growth forecasts for 2019 and a positive opinion on the growth in Q1 2019, the decisions of the ECB yesterday and the press conference of Mario Draghi have also involved a number of elements dovish, including the fact that the ECB has pushed back by a change of language, the possible date for the first rate increase in the second half of 2020.
But in the end, these are the items hawkish that have the most impact on the exchanges, since the Euro is in the end displayed a balance sheet to the upside yesterday.
Today, investors will focus on the report to the NFP on job creation, US in the month of may. The consensus expects 185k new jobs, compared to 263k previously, for an unemployment rate stable at 3.6%, and average hourly wages up 0.3% vs. 0.2% previously.
It should be noted that the ADP report very disappointing (27k versus 185k expected) of Wednesday, raising the risk of a surprise negative due to the correlation between the two statsitiques.
However, given the level of very low unemployment in the USA, with job creation below expectations may not prove to be too influential, and we will therefore give more attention to the growth of average hourly wages.
From a technical point of view, the area of the psychological threshold of 1.13 appears as a major resistance, and the two peaks marked this week in this area currently form a figure chart double top that could prevent an imminent correction.
If this occurs, the moving average 100 hours to 1.1244 will be the first support to monitor, before 1.1220, 1,12, then 1, 1150, and the lowest annual 1,1106.
In the case of rising above 1.13, we will monitor 1,1350 and to 1.14 as the next targets of a bull the most probable.