The EUR/USD pair opens this Thursday, its third straight day of consolidation, in spite of the news that has offered these last several days opportunity to see the volatility increase, the opportunities have simply been ignored.
As noted earlier, the ADP report (AP:ADP) and the ISM services, both of which have been the occasion of negative surprises yesterday, have failed to support EUR/USD.
Yesterday evening, the tweet from Trump criticizing Europe and China for the supposed manipulation of their currency has not had a significant impact on the course of the Euro-Dollar, and it has been the same for the retail sales in the Euro Zone, released this morning, which, however, had proven largely disappointing, at -0.3% against +0.3% anticipated by the consensus.
The report NFP will he clarify the situation on EUR/USD?
Therefore, it seems that traders are waiting for especially the publication of the report NFP on job creation, US in the month of June tomorrow at 14: 30 to make a decision more candid on the direction in which to push the pair.
In fact, the report NFP will be particulièremet important this month, because it is one of the last statsitiques major that the Fed will be able to take into account for its decision on rates at the end of the month.
Knowing that, currently, the market anticipates a proabbilité 100% to see the Fed cut rates, the upward impact on EUR/USD to a report NFP disappointing could be limited and/or short-term.
If, however, it reveals a positive surprise, investors may put at least marginally in doubt their expectations of a rate cut from the Fed, which could more clearly support the Dollar and push the EUR/USD down.
For the moment, the consolidation remains the most likely scenario in the short term, especially as no statistics to US will not be expected today due to the festivities of the Independence Day.
Technical thresholds to monitor
From a graphical point of view, it is interesting to note that the EUR/USD is currently trading between its moving averages 100 and 200 days, repsectivement at 1.1260 and 1.1350.
These terminals will therefore be the first key thresholds to watch for in quest of clues to directional.
Beyond 1.1350, 1.14 will be the next target possible. Below 1.1260, the area around the psychological threshold of 1.12 might provide support, before the palm annual little above 1.11.