EUR/USD: The Euro seems to be hesitant after the signals are bearish for Friday

© Reuters. The Euro brings into question its profile bearish – After having risen sharply in the beginning of last week, up to a peak of 1,1570 Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair then lost ground, especially on Friday, to the point of calling into question the profile uptrend in the short term of the Euro-Dollar.

The collapse of Friday has in effect resulted in several signals bearish important from a technical point of view.

Technical signals and thresholds to monitor on EUR/USD

One can mention in particular the break in the upward trend line that supported the evolution of the EUR/USD since the beginning of the month, as well as the break below the moving average 100 hours, and more important, under the moving average 100 days, as well as under the psychological threshold of 1.15.

The counting of the peaks and troughs also allows you to see that the last two peaks and last two lower are diminishing, which indicates the possibility of putting in place a bearish reversal.

For this to be confirmed, the support zone of 1,1440-50, which contains the moving average of 200 hours, will have to be broken.

Below this level, the next support will then be identified on the psychological threshold of 1.14, on 1,1350 and 1,13 in a first time.

Has the upside, a return above 1.15 would open up new opportunities to upward, and in this case, the last two vertices to 1,1540 and 1,1570 will be the first resistance to monitor, before the psychological threshold of 1.16.

Statistics and records macro to monitor this Monday

In regards to the news, the economic calendar will be nearly empty Monday, with only the industrial production of the euro area which is likely to influence trade, at 11am. Economists are expecting a net decline of-1.5% for the month of November, after an increase of +0.2% the previous month.

Apart from this, you also need to monitor any potential new development in relation to the Brexit, the shutdown of the US government, or the trade war China-USA.

In regards to the Brexit, it should be noted that the british Parliament will vote on the draft agreement on the Brexit tomorrow. For the shutdown, the political impasse continues, with no hope of résultion at this stage, which could start to have negative consequences both real and on the economy.

In regards to the trade war China-USA, the data of the chinese balance of trade for the month of December, published last night could argue for a quick agreement. Indeed, if the surplus in the chinese balance of trade has far exceeded the consensus, to 57,06 us $ Bn against 51,53 us $ Bn anticipated, it is in large part due to the fact that imports fell much more than exports.

Exports have declined by -4,4%, while imports plunged by 7.6% like. This allows you to see in concrete terms the consequences of the trade war from the chinese side, and such figures should cause Beijing to do everything possible to reach an agreement with the US and improve the situation.

Many of the subjects may influence the EUR/USD pair in the coming days, but for now, the caution is, waiting for evidence to confirm a clear direction and sustainable.

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