EUR/USD: The Euro is weakening in the wake of the Book, but the Fed will have the last word

© O Financista. EUR/USD back with the GBP, without waiting for the Fed

The fate of the EUR/USD pair is expected in the end largely depend on the Fed meeting this Wednesday 20 march 2019, but the day starts, however, under the sign of decline.

The pair EUR/USD loses ground in early european session, with a low every day at 1.1335, for the moment, penalized by the fall of the pair GBP/USD, which is known to evolve with twists and turns in regards to the Brexit.

But the attention of traders should quickly turn back to the Fed, which ends tonight its monetary policy meeting for the month of march, which is the main event of the week.

Economists expect no change in monetary policy, but investors will remain particularly attentive to the forecasts of the Fed in terms of growth, inflation and especially interest rates.

For the moment, the Fed continues officially to leave the door open for 2 rate hikes this year, although the money market provides for no on his side. The Fed, therefore, should modify its guidance in terms of rate (the ” dot-plot “) to better reflect the expectations of the market.

The main question will therefore be whether the Fed will announce no longer expect any rate hike this year, or if she is considering any of the same at least one.

Traders remain attentive to the comments of Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, in regard to the economic context, while the indicators have even deteriorated since the last Fed meeting, and that the trade dispute China-USA is slow to be resolved.

From a graphical point of view, it should be noted that the trend is still broadly positive in the short term.

However, the threshold of 1,1360 appears clearly as a resistance that is blocking for the moment continued to rise. In the case of a break above this threshold, the positive bias would be confirmed, and we are interested then to other low-barrier above, with the psychological threshold of 1.14 and the top of the end of February to 1,1419.

The decline, to watch first the moving average 100 hours at 1.1331 now, before support of 1,1325 and 1.13.

As of 1.13, you will be able to estimate that the vendors return to the hand, and we will look to next support at 1,1250, 1,1220, 1.12 and 1,1175 as potential targets downside.

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