EUR/USD: The Euro is hesitating in the face of significant resistance, in the expectation of the Fed

© O Financista. The Euro is hesitating in the meantime the Fed – The EUR/USD pair is showing more and more hesitant since the beginning of the week, forming now a range 1,1400 -1,1450 about, in anticipation of the first major events of the week this Wednesday.

We will remind that the day will be fairly busy, with, in particular, the CPI preliminary in Germany in the month of January at 14h, the ADP report (AP:ADP) on job creation, US to 14: 15, and especially the Fed meeting, with the FOMC statement and the announcement of the rate at 20h, and with the press conference of Jerome Powell from 20: 30.

The market expects the overall meeting dovish, because of the multiple signs of a global economic slowdown. The assessment of the Fed about the risks that weigh on the economy will therefore be the most important item to monitor to fine-tune the monetary policy expectations.

For the moment, economists expect two rate hikes this year, the first being scheduled for the month of June, according to a survey of Bloomberg, the results of which were published yesterday. A position too frankly dovish tone of the Fed could roll back those expectations and relieve the EUR/USD weighing on the Dollar.

The other important event of the day for EUR/USD will be the release of the ADP report on job creation, US in the month of January, which will better address the report to the NFP on Friday, which is also one of the events expected this week. The consensus anticipates of créatiosn jobs decrease, which does not seem surprising after the figures are exceptionally good in the previous month.

From a graphical point of view, attempts to rise yesterday and this morning have enabled us to confirm the resistance of 1,1450, which is located a little before the other barriers are more important, namely the moving average 100 day 1,1470 and the psychological threshold of 1.15.

A further increase of the EUR/USD should therefore be in need of new catalysts (potentially important events of the day), taking into account the importance of the next resistors.

In case of correction, the area of 1,1400-10 will be the first support to monitor, before 1,1380, 1,1350 and 1.13.

To summarize, the evolution of the EUR/USD will largely depend on the Fed meeting this evening, and in the waiting, the range 1,1400-1,1450 should dominate.

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