EUR/USD: The Euro insists on the rise, but caution still prevails ahead of the Fed

© O Financista. The Euro insists on the rise, but still below a key resistance

The EUR/USD pair continued to grow yesterday evening, marking the course of the night, a peak at 1.1360, but still fails to confirm a break above the key resistance zone around 1.1350, with the moving average 100 hours at 1.1341, and the moving average 200 hours to 1.1356.

Remember that the main factor on which the Euro benefits since the beginning of the week is the weakness of the Dollar, in part related to the anticipation of a meeting of the Fed’s dovish tomorrow.

The possibility of a Fed prudent tomorrow weighs on the Dollar

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key rate according to the forecasts of the market, but it must still emphasize that this probability has fallen sharply in recent years.

In fact, according to the barometer Fed d’, the probability of seeing the Fed raise its rates tomorrow is 68.9% currently, while this figure was over 80% a few weeks yet.

The deterioration of the economic situation in the United States, and around the world, should therefore prompt the Fed to be cautious in its words and its forecast tomorrow, even if the rate increase is still maintained.

This es concerns weigh so on the Dollar, which pushed the EUR/USD pair, however, the caution is because the side of the Euro, there is little reason to reassure himself, after the PMI indexes are degraded and the meeting dovish tone of the ECB of last week, and after the CPI lower than expectations this week.

Caution is therefore required in the face of the building seen on the EUR/USD since the beginning of the week, all the more that it is also possible that the Fed is less dovh than provided for in the market tomorrow.

Technical update EUR/USD

From a technical point of view, only a break confirmed above 1.1356 (MM200h) would begin to question the bearish view.

Beyond 1.14, the profile would then be more bullish, and it will then be up to the resistance located at 1.1420-25, 1.1450, 1.1475 and 1.15.

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In case of correction from the current levels, the psychological threshold of 1.13 will be the first support to monitor, prior to 1.1265-70, and then 1.1215, the low annual 2018.

Finally, it should be noted that the economic calendar is likely to have an influence on the EUR/USD and other currency pairs on the forex this Tuesday, with the IFO index of business climate German expected at 10am, and then with the housing projects and building permits in the United States this afternoon at 14: 30.

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