EUR/USD: The Euro fluctuates, the traders play the caution on the eve of the Fed

© Reuters. EUR/USD hesitates ahead of the Fed

After new highs are marginal to 1.1361 against 1.1359 for the pic from yesterday, the pair EUR/USD weakens on Tuesday afternoon, in the wake of GBP/USD.

It should be remembered that the summit daily Euro corresponds to that of the Book, which is changing his side at the discretion of statements about the Brexit.

The rise of the Euro-Dollar was also helped this morning by the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment in germany, who is back for the 5th consecutive month, posting significantly above expectations.

Orders to the US industry, the only other important statistic of the day, proved to be below expectations, at 0.1% against 0.3% expected, but this has not seemed to affect the Dollar, as we can see by observing the short-term behaviour of the Dollar Index.

It should also be noted that the Fed meeting will take place tomorrow, and that the traders prefer without doubt play the caution before this major event, which also explains their reluctance to push the Euro to rise too much before this Tuesday.

From a technical point of view, it can be observed in the hourly data and an upward trend line visible since the low of march 7 and which passes through the hollow yesterday, and currently to 1.1345, in direct contact with the course.

A break below this trend line would be a first alert to the downside. It is, however, that under the support of 1.1325, the current location of the moving average 100 hours, that may be seen as vendors begin to take again the hand.

In this case, the psychological threshold of 1.13 will be the first logical target, before the moving average 200 hours currently at 1.1287, and then 1.1250, 1.1220, 1.12 and 1.1175.

In case of return of the increase and the breakout confirmed above 1.1360, a test of the psychological threshold of 1.14, and even the summit from 28 February to 1.1419 will be possible, but that seems unlikely at this stage without the support of a Fed’s dovish tomorrow.

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