The stabilization of the EUR/USD pair over the past weekend has left place at; a sharp rebound on Monday, and the rise continues on Monday, with a recent high at 1.1067, at a few pips from the yearly high of 1.1076 marked on April 14.
Yet the only significant statistic yesterday, the German IFO Business Climate Index, came out on top. mixed, which could have weighed on the Euro.
With regard to expectations about Fed policy, the main factor for the trend of the Euro Dollar in recent months, it will be noted that the probability of of a 0.25% rate hike for the Fed’s early May meeting fell to 0.25%. 85.5% this Tuesday morning, against 89.1% the day before.
The probability of that this increase is followed by another increase of 0.25% in June has as for; she backed off to 20.4% against 23.4% the previous day, which justifies a slight downward pressure on the Dollar.
As for the day of this Tuesday, the European calendar will be almost empty. In contrast, the US schedule has several key elements, with building permits at 10:00 p.m. 3:30 p.m., and consumer confidence and new home sales at 4 p.m.
However, we will have to wait longer to see the most important statistics of this week, with the preliminary US GDP for Q1 on Thursday, then the GDP of the Euro Zone and the price index Core PCE on Friday.
Technical thresholds at; monitor on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, this year’s peak at 1.1076, coupled At the psychological level of 1.11, forms an immediate resistance for the EUR/USD. Then, the summit of March 31, 2022 at; 1.1185 and the psychological threshold of 1.12 will form the next hurdle.
At the decline, the major psychological threshold of 1.10 is the first important threshold, before the zone of 1.09-1.0920, then the threshold of 1.08 the 50-day moving average at the end of the year. 1.0778, as well as the 100-day moving average at 1.0746, a threshold below which we can consider that the underlying uptrend of the EUR/USD is called into question.
EUR/USD: The bulls take control before several major risks