EUR/USD: The bullish trend remains safe, but the risk of a reversal increases

The EUR/USD has shown a day of increase on Tuesday, without however canceling the losses of the previous day, nor without returning above the key threshold; of 1.10, which leaves the currency pair in an uncertain situation on Wednesday.

Recall that the Euro Dollar had benefited from at the start of the day yesterday of the positive impact on sentiment of the above-expected figures for Chinese growth. However, the ZEW index below published expectations. later then quit the rise.

As for important statistics for EUR/USD on Wednesday, the most important thing to watch is the final data for the Eurozone CPI for March, at the end of March. 11 a.m., while the program in the USA will be almost empty, a fairly light economic calendar which argues for a sideways evolution of the currency pair.

Forex traders will also need to keep an eye on Fed rate expectations, knowing that the likelihood of of a 0.25% rate hike for the next FOMC meeting on May 3 is 80.5% this morning, versus 85.2% the day before. The probability an additional increase of 0.25% in June is currently 22%, stable compared to June. yesterday.

>> Follow the evolution of market expectations. for Fed Rates with the Rate Barometer

Technical Thresholds at; monitor on EUR/USD

From a graphical point of view, note that the rising trend line visible since mid-March on the daily chart has come to an end. Monday's fall and served as the basis for Tuesday's rebound.

The immediate trend therefore remains bullish. However, for this to remain the case, EUR/USD will have to achieve quickly cross to; again the psychological threshold of 1.10. In this case, last week's high at 1.1076 and the psychological threshold of 1.11 will be the next bullish targets

If the trendline mentioned above is broken, the next potential support at to take into account will be the threshold of 1.09, before the threshold of 1.08, then the moving averages 50 and 100 days at 1.0755 and 1.0726 respectively.

EUR/USD: The bullish trend remains safe, but the risk of reversal increases  

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