EUR/USD: The bias remains bullish, but several factors suggest caution

© O Financista. The trend remains bullish on the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD currency pair shows a balance strongly bullish since the beginning of the week, and retains most of its weekly gains on Friday, currently at 1.1470 after the peaks at 1.1485 yesterday, the highest since 6 weeks.

The weakness of the us Dollar has been the dominant factor in the increase of the EUR/USD this week, with the anticipation of a meeting of the Fed’s dovish tone. And despite a few surprises hawkish, which led to a brief rebound in the Dollar, the Fed is on the bottom, all the same, proved dovish, which helped the Dollar to continue to decline after the event, pushing EUR/USD higher.

Several factors could limit the upside potential for this Friday

First of all, profits are possible, following the strong increase posted this week, and before the break of the weekend, which will precede the period of the end of the year holidays generally illiquid and where traders do not want to retain open positions.

In addition, from a graphic point of view, resistance is emerging to 1.1485, a threshold, where is the moving average 100 days, not far from an obstacle even more important, with the psychological threshold major of 1.15, a threshold that traders should be reluctant to test so close to the weekly close of the Forex.

It will also need to take account of the risk represented by the economic calendar Friday, with many of the news out of the US that are likely to influence the Dollar : durable goods Orders, GDP Q3 final, consumer spending and consumer confidence are on the program this afternoon.

Threshold to monitor this Friday

To summarize, EUR/USD displays a profile bullish, but is facing a resistance zone at 1.1485-1.15, composed of the vertices of yesterday, the moving average 100 days, and a psychological threshold key. Beyond that, 1.1550 and 1.16 will be the next potential objective.

Below 1.1440, the profile uptrend would begin to weaken. We can then start to consider trading strategies based on a bearish reversal in case of return below 1.14, which would light 1.1350 in a first time.

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