After a bearish first part of the day and a trough at the end of the day. 1.0635 in the late afternoon, the EUR/USD pair reached bounce back thanks to; a reversal of expectations for the next Fed meeting which penalized the the greenback.
The Euro Dollar is indeed back up. up to 1.0697 overnight, and evolves to 1.0688 at the time of this writing. 6:20 a.m. CET.
Fed Rate Expectations Reversal Supports EUR/USD
However, expectations about the Fed have come into play; a big role in the EUR/USD rebound. Indeed, the probability from a break in rate hikes at the next meeting on June 14 moved to 64.5% this morning, versus 37% yesterday morning, according to the Investing.com Fed Rate Barometer.
Recall that speculation about a pause in rate hikes in June received a major boost on Wednesday after Federal Reserve officials signaled a slump in the rate hikes. their will not to raise rates next month in order to assess the data to come. come.
“Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Patrick Harker said Wednesday that not raising rates at an upcoming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions on the extent of further policy firming.
For his part, Philip Jefferson, Fed Governor and candidate Vice President, who also argued for a “hawkish” pause by foregoing a rate hike next month.
“A decision to keep our policy rate constant at a future meeting should not be taken to mean that we have reached the maximum rate for this cycle,” he said. Mr. Jefferson.
These remarks therefore explain the reversal of anticipations for the next meeting of the Fed and the fall of the Dollar which allowed EUR/USD to rebound, although not enough to challenge the overall bearish bias.
The economic calendar remains busy; for EUR/USD this Thursday
As for the day of this Thursday, many events will still be likely to largely influence the price of the Euro Dollar.
The morning will indeed be marked by new estimates of the European PMI indices, and especially by the preliminary inflation figures for May in the euro zone. Investors will also have to watch for an intervention by Christine Lagarde at the conference. 11:30 a.m. and ECB Minutes at; 1:30 p.m.
In the United States, the schedule will be just as busy, with the ADP (EPA:ADP) employment report, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM manufacturer.
The day could therefore turn out to be just as lively as yesterday for EUR/USD.
>> Find in real time the result of all the important statistics for EUR/USD in the Investing.com economic calendar
Technical thresholds at; monitor on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, yesterday's low around 1.0635 and the psychological level of 1.06 are the first potential supports to go down. take into account before the zone around the capital psychological threshold of 1.05, which has been theater of this year's low (1.0480).
À The upside, the 100-dma and the 1.08 threshold are the first resistances worthy of interest in case of a return above 1.07. Then, the MA 50 days to agrave; 1.0895 and the threshold of 1.09 will come into play, before other much more important objectives, at the end of the day. namely the major threshold of 1.10 and the top of this year at; 1.1095.
In the end, despite the observed rebound Overnight, the currency pair's immediate trend remains bearish, and further lows are not ruled out today.
EUR/USD: Bias remains bearish despite reversal in expectations for the Fed