The week began by slight gains to date. the reopening of Forex on Sunday evening for the EUR/USD pair, a progression still far from being sufficient to call into question the underlying downward trend, as a particularly important week begins.
Indeed, the Euro Dollar will be subject to The influence of many key macroeconomic events this week, including a new estimate of the European CPI on Tuesday. However, the event most likely to influence the currency pair this week will undoubtedly be the Fed meeting on Wednesday evening.
>> Find the list of all the important events for EUR/USD this week as well as their real-time results in the Investing.com economic calendar!
Fed meeting in focus for forex traders this weekAccording to the Fed Investing.com rate barometer, the market takes into account a probability of 98% that the Fed refrains from raising rates. A confirmation of this outcome may therefore not have too much impact on EUR/USD.
On the other hand, expectations for the next FOMC meeting, which will take place on September 1, are more vague. Indeed, investors estimate that there is more than a 27% chance that the Fed will resume raising rates at a higher rate. this moment.
In this context, this week's Fed meeting will help to refine these expectations. If the Fed suggests that the rate hike is over for good, we should expect to see more of it. see the Dollar fall, and the EUR/USD pair take off.
À Conversely, if the prospect of a return to the Fed's rate hike in November increases, the greenback should find itself strengthened, to the detriment of the Euro Dollar.
Technical thresholds at monitor on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, the underlying trend of EUR/USD remains clearly bearish, as evidenced by the descending channel visible in red on the daily chart below.
If the Euro Dollar rebound becomes more pronounced, the first potential resistance will be the psychological threshold of 1.07. Then, last week's summit at 1.0770 will come into play, before the threshold of 1.08, then the 200 day moving average at 1.0827.
If the decline returns, last week's low near 1.0635 will be the first support to break. watch, before the psychological threshold of 1.06.
EUR/USD hesitates as its fate will be determined by the Fed this week