EUR/USD: crucial Day for the Euro-Dollar, ECB, and Fed to the program

© O Financista. A crucial day is shaping up for the EUR/USD pair

This day, Wednesday, April 10, 2019 will be without doubt crucial for the pair EUR/USD. Several key events will be in effect expected in the economic calendar of the day, after an attempt to rise yesterday.

It should be remembered that the Euro-Dollar came to touch the resistance of 1.1285, a barrier that traders have not dared to test it before the meeting of the ECB, and in the end, it is a range 1.1255-1.1285 that seems to dominate the exchanges in the short term.

Today, it is the ECB meeting which will be the main event to be monitored. No monetary policy decision is expected, after the Central Bank has already exhausted much of its ammunition during the previous meeting (postponement of the scheduled date for the 1st rate hike, announcement of TLTRO and lowering of the growth forecasts).

However, the press conference of Mario Draghi will be closely monitored, and the boss of the ECB should, in all likelihood, continue to highlight the downside risks to the economy. Thus there is little chance that the meeting of the ECB is proving to be a favourable factor for the Euro, but there is not much of a margin as the central bank is more dovish than the previous month, and the downward impact should therefore also remain limited.

The other major event of the afternoon will be the publication of the CPI, US, expected in increase, which could bolster the Dollar. But it is mainly the Minutes of the Fed is expected this evening at 20h, which will be likely to affect the greenback.

A tone dovish tone is here too early, and few surprises are expected, but the event will still need to be monitored closely.

The subject of the trade war, which now moves in Europe if we are to believe the statements made yesterday by the US president Donald Trump, will also be a topic potentially influential on the EUR/USD today, the same as the Brexit, in particular via its influence on the GBP/USD.

From a graphical point of view, the range 1.1255-1.1285 dominates the pair in the short term. In case of breaking below 1.1250-55, the objectives of downside possible will find themselves at 1.1225, 1.1210, 1.12, 1.1185 and 1.1175, the hollow of 2019.

In the event of the crossing over of the terminal high of the range at 1.1285, the first critical resistance is expected to fall over the psychological threshold of 1.13, before 1.1330, 1.1350-60 and 1.14.

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