EUR/USD continues to weaken despite the prospect of a Fed pause – EUR/USD deepened its losses yesterday, touching the psychological threshold of 1.09 but not testing it, and pressure remains broadly short-term bearish on the currency pair on Friday morning.

Recall that yesterday saw the dollar strengthen slightly, despite weekly jobless claims above expectations and a PPI below consensus, data that further bolstered expectations of a pause in the Fed's rate hike.

As for this Friday's economic calendar, traders interested in EUR/USD should watch the export and export price indices. US imports, as well as the consumer confidence index according to the University of Michigan.

In the meantime, we suggest you take an interest in the opinion of some banks about the Euro Dollar.

Banks are showing cautious opinions on EUR/USD

In a note published yesterday, the Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) for example sent a message of caution vis-à-vis the EUR/USD, considering that the ECB has little room to surprise on the hawkish side.

“It is clear that many are currently of the view that the ECB has been more restrictive than the Fed. However, at some point, after the ECB's last rate hike in June, it is likely that this will no longer be the At that time, the ECB will only be able to surprise by its dovish side” indeed wrote the Commerzbank analysts.

Note that “the dollar is also under pressure due to additional factors, such as the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling,” CZ also warned that “at some point things will change,” advising Euro bulls to “prepare for that moment.”


For their part, economists at ING (AS:INGA) expect the EUR/USD pair to suffer further losses in the coming days, and have also mentioned the influence of the ECB .

“The ECB's latest remarks haven't had a huge impact on the euro. Markets are probably feeling comfortable with current prices, and the euro's sensitivity to September/October price was not very high anyway” wrote ING analysts.

Regarding EUR/USD, the bank judged that “there are downside risks that extend below 1.0900 in the coming days, and well below that level if money market liquidity starting to dry out”.

Important technical thresholds for EUR/USD

From a chart perspective, EUR/USD is now facing immediate support at 1 ,09. Further down, the 50 and 100 day moving averages at 1.0871 and 1.0798 will be the next potential support levels. .png” />

On the upside, 1.10 is more of a pivot threshold than support or resistance, with the first major hurdle being this year's high at 1.1095, coupled with the threshold psychological 1.11.

EUR/USD continues to weaken despite prospect of Fed pause  

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