Investing.com – EUR/USD fell sharply and sent new key bearish signals on Thursday, and pressure remains on the downside as the last forex trading day of the week begins.
Recall that the fall in the currency pair yesterday was mainly due to a strengthening of the Dollar, which benefited from better than expected data, with less jobless claims than expected, and with a Philadelphia Fed index much better than expected .
Faced with these figures, the probability that the Fed will decide on a pause in rate hikes has continued to decline. Indeed, the Investing.com Fed Barometer shows this Friday morning a probability of only 62.2% of a Fed pause, compared to around 90% a week ago.
Thus, forex traders now take into account more than a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed will finally decide to raise its rates again by 25 basis points, which explains the rise of the Dollar, and the mechanical downward impact on EUR/USD .
As of today, no major US statistics are expected, but investors will be closely watching a speech by Fed chief Jerome Powell at 5 p.m.
Technical thresholds to watch on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, we note that the Euro Dollar sent a new key bearish signal on Thursday by breaking below its 100-day moving average.
Earlier this week EUR/USD also broke below a trendline long-term bullish trend that stretched since the end of September 2022.
Now, the 100-day MA at 1.0807 and the psychological threshold of 1.08 form immediate resistance for the Euro Dollar. On the downside, no concrete support can be spotted before the psychological level of 1.07.
EUR/USD continues to fall and sends new major bearish signals 1
