The EUR/USD pair fell sharply; Thursday, in what some called of disproportionate reaction to a price index US consumption slightly above expectations.
While the Euro Dollar moved towards 1.0625 with the publication, the currency pair fell sharply. until’à a hollow at; 1.0525 in the evening, therefore losing 100 pips. Yet US inflation data came in only marginally better than expected.
The general CPI actually came out at 3.7% versus 3.6% anticipated; in annual data, and at 0.4% versus 0.3% anticipated; in monthly data, for a Core IPC (excluding food and energy) confirms the consensus at 4.1% in annual data and 0.3% in monthly data.
It should be noted that the impact on expectations for the next Fed meeting was significant. very limited, the FOMC Investing.com rate barometer testifying to a probability of a little less than 10% that the Fed raises its rates on November 1, a figure similar to that of the Fed. that of the day before.
On the other hand, the market now estimates that there is a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed will raise its rates in December, which has had an upward impact on US rates, particularly the US rate. 10 years, thus promoting the progression of the greenback.
Another factor that favored The rise of the Dollar, and the fall of the EUR/USD, concerns the figures for unemployment claims lower than expected, reflecting a weaker market. always solid work.
>> See the result of all important statistics for EUR/USD in real time in the Investing.com economic calendar!
As for this Friday, forex traders positioned on the Euro Dollar will monitor the CPIs of France and Spain at high prices. 8:45 a.m. and 9 a.m., while in the United States, it is consumer confidence according to the University of Chicago. of Michigan which will be the most important statistic in the world monitor.
Technical thresholds at agrave; watch on EUR/USD
But it is also important to note that the fall of the EUR/USD pair can also be explained by technical factors.
As seen in the chart below, yesterday’s fall came after EUR/USD hit a sharp decline. on a downward trend line visible since the summer last, as well as on an old support which became resistance around 1.0635.
If the pursuit fall, the key psychological threshold 1.05 and this year's low just below 1.0450 will be the first potential supports at to watch. Finally, if the Euro Dollar manages to achieve rebound, 1.06 will be the first obstacle, before the resistance of 1.0635, then 1.07. Higher, the zone of 1.0760, then 1.08 and the convergence of the 100 and 200 day MAs at 1.0823-32 will be the following barriers.
EUR/USD collapses following the US CPI and facing technical barriers: What now? 1