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After having already tried to advance yesterday, without success as it had in the course of the afternoon cancelled all the gains made during the morning, the EUR/USD pair is trying again to make progress on Tuesday, surpassing peaks yesterday.
The Euro is benefiting mainly the ZEW index of business climate in German for the month of December, which was stronger than expected, climbing by 10.7 points, compared with 1.1-percentage-point advance, and -2.1 points in the previous month.
These figures are all the more reassured investors that the index has not posted in positive territory since April.
In the Face of the publication, the EUR/USD pair is therefore increased, with a peak daily at 1.1085 for the moment, against 1.1077 for the summit yesterday.
The technical context has not yet given the green light to the purchase
From a technical point of view, it should be noted that the increase in the day leads to a test of the moving average 100 hours currently to 1.1078. However, a confirmed return above this threshold will not be sufficient to generate an upward bias clear.
It would, in effect, that the EUR/USD exceeds the resistance zone of 1.1100 (psychological level) and 1.1115 (summit of 4 December) for the outlook becomes more bullish.
In this case, the next upside potential will be the 200-day moving average currently located at 1.1154, and then the resistance zone of 1.1175-80, before the psychological threshold of 1.12.
If the Euro weakens, the first key support to watch is the area formed by the moving average of 200 hours (1.1058) and the moving average 100 days (1.1064).
A break below this threshold would involve a possible return to the area of the psychological level of 1.10 and a low of 29 November to 1.0980.
A very full agenda for the Euro-Dollar from tomorrow
Finally, we must not forget that even if the numbers of the day and their impact on the Euro are encouraging, and the technical context, the fate of the Euro will depend on the final other events much more important this week.
Tomorrow is the Fed meeting that will attract the attention of investors. And although it is widely expected that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, the update of its economic forecasts and other details that could influence the Dollar.
Thursday is the ECB meeting, which will be the main risk for the Euro. Here also, no decision is expected, but it will be the first meeting of the ECB, chaired by Christine Lagarde, and the market is looking forward to learn more about his vision in terms of the outlook for monetary policy, after she had carefully avoided the topic in its first official response as patron of the ECB in recent weeks.
On Friday, the retail sales in US in the month of November that will potentially the day, with an increase of +0.5% expected, in acceleration compared to +0.3% in October, which could be welcomed by the Dollar.
Finally, it must not be forgotten that the trade war could at any time come to influence trade through the risk sentiment, while investors are waiting to see if the new tariffs US against China are supposed to enter into force this Sunday, December 15, will be applied or not.