Economics : first alert in the United States, after two years of euphoria

Two years of prosperity under the reign of Donald Trump. Ten days of mid-term elections of November 6, the u.s. president can gloat : growth rose more than expected in the third quarter, at the rate of 3.5 %, after 4.2% in the second quarter.

The economy should therefore finish the year on a growth of more than 3 %, its best performance since 2005. The unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969, passed from 4.8 % to 3.7 %, with more than four million jobs created since January 2017 ; Wall Street, in spite of the current correction, jumped by over a third for the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones and a quarter for the S&P 500 since the election of Mr. Trump. Add to that the wages grow at an annual rate of 3.5 % (with an inflation of 2.2 %) and that the inequality : of the confession even of Jason Furman, a former adviser to Barack Obama, the wages of the poorest 20 percent are the ones who progress the most, unlike what was happening at the end of the 1990s.

The economical happiness is it, in Trump, worthy of what it was under Clinton ? With an american president vilified by his opponents, such talk immediately to the protest : the recovery had begun under Obama, and is explained by the good health of businesses ; the unemployment figures mask an activity rate too low, with men out of the labour market ; and the u.s. economy will hit a fiscal deficit and the protectionist policy of Mr. Trump, as evidenced by the cold shower to Wall Street.

Try to see what it is. First, Obama had delivered up the us economy (10% unemployment in 2009), but the election year of 2016 has been poor, hampered by currency tensions, a crash in oil and a growth limited to 1.6 %. The New York Times has published, in October, a survey on ” The recession is invisible in 2016 : the event went unnoticed…

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