Tuesday’s interest rate decisions after the analyst interviewed by MTI, we expect that the base rate 2019 until the end of may remain unchanged.
Ürmössy Gregory, Erste Bank senior macroeconomic analyst in commentary wrote: the interest rate track forecast we have not changed, i.e., 2019 until the end no matter what the 0,9 percent base rate change. The specialist by the end of 2018 with a negligible chance of see to the interbank interest rate rise, expects 3-month BUBOR interest rate on the current 0,15 percent further decrease in the coming months.
Ürmössy Gregory announced that the National Bank will increase interest rates in force, if the u.s. central bank having the role of Covering the expected faster and more aggressively you start, the balance sheet total of the reductions, and the European Central Bank than expected before you start the covered bond purchase programme out of. For now, it seems that this two events have a small probability he added.
Erste Bank senior analyst highlighted that the September meeting of the monetary council, not only the basic interest rate from to decide, but the 3-month central bank deposits, quantitative restrictions, too. By the end of September, 300 billion huf, is reduced by the banking system may be placed on liquidity, and subsequently the 3-month deposit fully be terminated this year end.
Suppan Gergely, the savings bank economic analysis head of the department said: the monetary conditions tightening for the next year until the second half don’t count, then the first time the non-conventional tools to be able to withdraw the central bank, this may be followed by the base rate slow, gradual increase, which, however, 2019 until the end of may remain unchanged. The persistently loose domestic monetary conditions, the international environment also may support – added.
Suppan Gergely, explained: the inflation pressure in the absence and the expected slower growth is due to the american federal reserve in the role of Fed’s slower pace, you can continue to raise his rates. This year, December will continue the European Central Bank (ECB) monthly 60 billion euro of asset purchase program, which next year will presumably only gradually leading out, while to raise interest rates the end of next year can not be counted. Meanwhile, the domestic risk premiums continue to narrow it can be added to the savings bank’s senior analyst.
Suppan Gergely emphasized: positive, that is a long time since a stable, predictable orbit, the central bank base rate.
Varga Zoltán, Equilor, technical analyst, indicated the central bank’s main tool 2015 since September, the three-month maturity MNB deposit. The asset yield is reflective of most of the monetary processes. The three-month maturity MNB deposit 2016. October 26, since the quantitative restriction can be used, which is the quarterly amount of continuously reduced, the last 300 billion was taken down.
He pointed out the following, of 19 September meeting will be decided in the fourth quarter limit amount, the according to the expectations, another 100-200 billion forints reduction in decision. The tool subsequently may be terminated, and the central bank switch to the active, credit side.
Németh Dávid, the K&H Bank senior analyst, stated: the interest rate decisions for its commentary from turned out to remain relaxed, keep the monetary conditions.
He added: as expected, the central bank indicated that the three-month deposit with further reductions can be in September, this is essentially a monetary relaxation.
According to the expert, the three-month deposit limit is the end of the year 100 billion to take down the federal reserve, in September it is expected the decision.
The loose monetary conditions to maintain the role that inflation has not yet reached by the central bank target of 3 percent target level. On the international stage, even in the cool conditions dominate, and the market less believe that soon a substantial tightening will occur – indicated Németh Dávid.