SEB’s Boprisindikator is now at 69. There is a rise of two points from last month and the second highest level ever. Regions differs and is within the range of 66 to 71. Households ‘ expectations of the repo rate’s level on a year turning down to 0.06 per cent. The proportion who plan to bind their interest rates are unchanged and remain at 7 per cent.
Of the households responding, 76% that they believe in rising prices over the next year. It is the same level as the past two months. The proportion who believe in falling prices, fell by two units from 9 to 7 per cent. The proportion who believe in the unchanged prices fell by one unit to 9 per cent. The overall effect is that the Boprisindikatorn rise by two units.
We define SEB’s Boprisindikator as the difference between the proportion who believe in rising prices and the percentage that believe in falling prices. The indicator is set in this measurement at 69 which is two units higher than last month.
– Households have a very strong belief that house prices will continue to rise. Despite the discussions and warnings about the tougher regulations, coming ränteuppgångar and any boprisfall, rising Boprisindikatorn further this month. It is now the second-highest level ever, three units from a record level of 72 in september 2015. One explanation may be the surprisingly soft Riksbanksbesked that came during the ongoing period of investigation, ” says SEB’s privatekonom Jens Magnusson.
Households believe that the repo rate will be on the plus 0.06% on a year
On the question what households think about the level of the Riksbank’s repo rate on a year they say on average that the repo rate will be 0.06%. It is a reduction from last month when expectations low at 0.12 per cent.
Seven per cent of households were planning to tie the interest rate
Of the households who fully or partially has a variable interest rate on their loan accounts for seven per cent that they have no intention of tying the interest rate in the upcoming three-month period. It is the same level as last month and the fourth month in a row where 6 or 7 percent of the households respond that they intend to bind the parts of their home loan. It can be compared with the average in the period 2014-2016, which was 4.5 per cent.
“It is positive that the percentage who plan to tie part of their mortgage lending is at a relatively high level. Both the national economy and many household finances would benefit from a better risk diversification in the lending portfolio than what can be achieved with only a variable interest rate. At the same time, the Riksbank’s announcement recently unexpectedly “soft” which, all else equal, makes it less of a hurry to tie the interest rate, ” says Jens Magnusson.
Boprisindikatorn step in four of the six regions
The regions differ more and less to and is now in the range of 66 to 71. Largest increase for may is in the north of sweden where Boprisindikatorn increase by eight units, from 59 to 67, as measured by the two-month average. In Stockholm, the step of the indicator with the four units from 67 to 71, in the Eastern Region with three units from 66 to 69 and in the Country outside Stockholm with a unit from 69 to 70. In the Western Region fell of the indicator with the 5 units from 71 to 66 and in Skåne with a unit from 72 to 71.
Demoskop carry out monthly since march 2003 on behalf of the SEB survey Boprisindikatorn. This study is based on 1 000 interviews and was conducted during the period 25 april to 3 may.
Boprisindikatorn – Development last 12 months:
For more information please contact
Jens Magnusson, Privatekonom
070-210 22 67
Frank Hojem, Head Of Media Relations
08-763 99 47
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Boprisindikatorn May 2017
Press release (PDF)