After heavy losses last week, EUR/USD remained weak. under pressure yesterday to start the week, and the fall is accentuated this Tuesday, the currency pair having broken an important support, and having for the moment scored; a low towards 1.0680.
Furthermore, the busy economic calendar this week represents a risk that could just as well favor a rebound as send the EUR/USD into an even sharper fall.
Indeed, after a calm day yesterday due to a public holiday, in the USA, Forex traders will be interested this Tuesday in US consumer confidence. Tomorrow, the JOLTS report on job offers will be watched, before the ADP report (EPA:ADP) and the ISM manufacturing on Thursday, then especially the NFP report on Friday.
However, these key events could have a decisive influence on expectations for the next Fed meeting, which have been fluctuating rapidly in recent days.
>> See the results of all the important statistics for EUR/USD in the Investing.com forex economic calendar
Indeed, the Investing.com Fed rate barometer testifies this Tuesday morning to a probability of of a little less than 60% that the Fed decides on a new rate hike in June. This figure is down slightly from yesterday, but in clear progression compared to; 15% a week ago, which explains the recent drop in the Euro Dollar.
Therefore, if the data expected this week turns out to be disappointing, and causes the market to decline. to With a pause in Fed rate hikes as its base case, EUR/USD should benefit. Conversely, if this week's US data is stronger than expected, the decline in the currency pair could deepen.
Technical thresholds at; watch on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, the psychological threshold of 1.07 has been reached. broken by the Euro Dollar this morning, which is a bearish signal. From now on, the next support will be the psychological level of 1.06, before the low of March 13 at 3:00 p.m. 1.0515, then 1.05 and this year's low around 1.0480.
À the upside, the 100-day moving average at 1.0814 is the first significant technical hurdle, before the 1.09 level, where is currently located at the 50-day MA.
EUR/USD breaks key support before an avalanche of data, the fall continues
