“With or without growth, the number of jobs not filled remains the same “

The French economy has generated 250,000 jobs by 2017, however, according to figures from the Pôle emploi, the unemployment has stagnated. The economist of the OFCE, Eric Heyer, decrypts the phenomena which are undermining the reflux of unemployment.

The latest figures Pole employment show that in 2017 the unemployment has stagnated. Why not drop in-t-it not then that the growth is so strong ?

The real question is rather : why not drop in-t-he not given the job creations ? As a reminder, the French economy has generated 250,000 in a year. Positions of better quality, which is more, according to the Acoss [central Agency of social Security bodies] which points out a greater share of the contracts of indeterminate duration. These figures are in line with the economy. Which makes us wonder if really the unemployment is not going down. Because, at a closer look, the situation is more complex. We have two indicators : the job center who told us that the unemployment is stagnating and that of the Insee, which, on the contrary, fits perfectly with the growth figures and the number of jobs that the French economy has created.

In what ways are the figures of the Insee stick with the economy ?

The active population French increase of almost 130 000 per year. Which, once deducted from the number of posts created every year (250 000), leaves us with 120 000 jobs for the unemployed. However, it is well-120 000 job seekers less than in the country in 2017. Pôle emploi, for its part, tells us that this number will decline to 15 000. So there are chances that this statistic is not relevant. The only solution to that this figure is correct, it is that discouraged workers who are no longer accounted for by the Insee, are coming back in mass to the favour of the recovery. But this is not what we are told in the Insee surveys. Certainly, we can see that, among those who had fallen, arms…

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