The OMXS30 is located and is gearing up for an outbreak from a phase of consolidation. To the reporting period, provide the fuel for a clear outbreak? Last week, the index short-term buy signals when it is in low activity went over in 1630. But the really strong buy signals is obtained only if the OMXS30 during an increasing trading activity to establish itself above the resistance at about 1657. In this case, we aim at gains to the old peak levels at about 1720. Conversely, if the OMXS30 instead, during the high activity breaks below the support at about 1600 obtained important sell signals. Then is the next strong support area at about 1540-1550.
The stockholm stock exchange rose last week, during the continuation of a relatively low börsomsättningar. Storbolagsindexet OMXS30 advanced up 1.8 per cent and closed the week at 1646,8. This year the rise on the OMXS30 index is at +8.5%. And included secluded dividends is the rise of +11.9%.
Last week, prowling the reporting period started. But this week takes the speed properly. Among the OMXS30 companies came last week, however, the Company with a profit warning. That pulled down the share price by 6 per cent. However, SEB came with a strong report. The reaction, however, was not as strongly positive as it should could and had to expect. There is a small sign of weakness for the entire stock market situation.
Get the OMXS30 analysis automatically to your e-mail every week!
What we now want to see is that the market receives good reports in a clear positive way. Otherwise it is a clear warning to the underlying strength of the stock market’s upward trend has been weakened.
This could then be due to the fact that several major central banks to flag up that they are to suppress their extremely expansive monetary policy stimulus programs. It is judgment in recent years provided the financial markets with excess capital. And then, among other things, pushed up the stock exchanges the world over in spite of the shaky economic climate, Brexit, terrorism, political unrest, etc.
For one can see that the that the OMXS30 index now stands and weighs. Should listed companies ‘ profit growth to be the most important factor? In this case, the stock markets continue upwards. Or is it more important that the central banks are going to draw down on its stimulus? In that case there is the risk that the stock market upturn will stop by, positive news do not really give any significant effect and that the stock market sooner or later begins to turn down.
The long trend for the OMXS30 index, which we define, following the slope of the 200-day medeltalskurvan, however, is continued upward. It has been since October of 2016. The index also shows a long-term pattern, with both rising bottoms and rising tops.
Handelsvolymsambanden has , however, in recent months shown up more questionable tendencies. Börsomsättningen at a part nedgångsdagar have been well as large as in the uppgångsdagarna. This sends warning signals that trendstyrkan can keep on dying down.
Would this trend continue , it is clear seriously. Any sell signals will then be extra important to monitor even for more long-term investors.
More the short term are , however, OMXS30 in a phase of consolidation between the support at about 1600 and resistance at about 1657.
Long-term interesting buy signals is obtained also only if the OMXS30 during a relatively high trading activity, preferably with at least börsomsättningar well over 20 billion per day during the uppgångsdagarna, are establishing themselves across the resistor at about 1657. In this case, we aim for a rise to, first and foremost, the old peak levels at about 1720.
If the OMXS30 instead establishes itself in the support at approximately 1600 get the strong sell signals. In this case, we aim at a test of the intensities at about 1540-1550. Should these support levels be broken, there are then the important support levels at about 1500.
Buy or sell signals that occur during a relatively low trading activity may, however, a lower signal value. An increase of 1657 can then, for example, getting stuck after just a rise on the type of 1-2 percent. And a sell signal in the 1600 during the relatively low trading volume may reach only down to the support level at about 1585.
Within the range of 1600 to 1657 jumps now OMXS30 since more than two months back and forth. Last week, for example, the index a short-term buy signal when it went above the resistance at about 1630.
This occurred, however, during a relatively low trading activity, which makes it, in the longer term does not give so much clues to which way the OMXS30 index will break out of the larger formation.
The Stochastic indicator are now also beginning to come up in the high and overbought levels. This is, however, no sell signal in itself, then the index can remain overbought for a longer period of time if the come into a strong trend. But it increases the risk of recoils downwards. In particular, if the index is approaching strong motståndsområden it at about 1657.
In timdiagrammet we see , however, that the new short-term buy signals is obtained if the resistance at about 1551 broken. In this case, we aim at a test of resistance at about 1657. Short-term sell signals are obtained if the supports at about 1640, about 1630, and about 1610 broken.
Short-term-oriented actors can, therefore, monitor the support at about 1640 and resistance at about 1651. Buy one at a possible buy signal over the 1651 can be in the first place aim at resistance at about 1657. Will even break it, especially if this would take place in a relatively high trading activity, one can then aim at the gains to about 1700-1720. Stop-loss perhaps just during the day poof’s lowest level.
Obtained instead a sell signal below support at about 1640 can aim downs to the supports at about 1630, about 1610, and about 1600-1602. Stop loss suggested just one day poof’s highest level.
For more long-term oriented investors, we continue to stress that the risk level has been raised in the past. The long trend is certainly clear upward. But handelsvolymsambanden look more reluctant, the US dollar is weak, long-term interest rates go up and we are now into the second half of the year which, historically and statistically speaking, often has brought many negative surprises.
So if you want to be careful so they sell parts of their long-term holding gains. Especially if these were to occur during a relatively low trading activity. And please have a stop loss if the OMXS30 during the high börsomsättningar would establish itself below support at 1600.
Click on the link for more information about ”Focus, strategy and ansvarsbeskrivning”
“Learn to support Yourself on Your Trading – a complete three-day course!” – see the next course!
More about technical analysis:
- Common concepts in technical analysis
- Moving averages – lagging indicator, which filters out the noise
- MACD – technical indicator, which fits well into the trends
- RSI – a classic momentumindikator that is a ”must” in swingtrading