The OMXS30 Analysis v.23 ”the OMXS30 in kraftsamlingsfas between about 1600 and about 1657”.

The OMXS30 was last week up there and tested motståndsområdet around about 1657. Establishes the OMXS30 above this level during a rising trading activity obtained strong buy signals. In this case, we aim at a test of the old tops from the year 2015, at about 1720. The long börstrenderna pointing upwards. But the more short-sighted terms, the OMXS30 index is stuck in a kraftsamlande phase of consolidation. An important level of support is at approximately 1600 and a resistance, therefore, at about 1657. Handelsvolymmönstret, USD and långräntornas development has recently, unfortunately, increased the risk that the OMXS30 index will continue its sideways movement. In this konsolideringsintervall obtained also short-term sell signals on the OMXS30 goes under the supports at about 1645, about 1636, and about 1626.

The stockholm stock exchange went out last week something up in a relatively irregular trade. Storbolagsindexet OMXS30 index went up 0.7 per cent and closed the week at 1646,67. Thus, in years the index has gone up by +8.5%. Included secluded dividends is the development of +11.9%.

During the week, was among the OMXS30 companies, especially Ericsson, which stood out with a rise. It was as a result of that it is now confirmed that Cevian Capital bought large blocks of shares in the company. And that Christer Gardell come up with in the committee, which contribute to the mess on the board. Also Securitas snatched up on the information about to share soon with the in the Carnegie småbolagsindex. Several mutual funds follow this index.

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In the technical analysis , we can conclude that the OMXS30 long-term speaking, is still in an upward trend. In the weekly chart below you can see that the OMXS30 at about 1600 and about 1550 has long-term important support levels. New buy signals in this more long-term perspective is obtained if the OMXS30 would establish themselves across the resistors at about 1657 and about 1720.

We go over to the slightly shorter time horizon in a day chart below, the situation is slightly more complicated. Even if the trends are essentially pointing upwards, so has the OMXS30 stuck in a konsolideringsområde between about 1600 and about 1657.

The OMXS30 was in and of itself a short-term buy signals last week when it went over the resistors at about 1636, and about 1642.

But last Friday, when the resistance at approximately 1642 was broken and the OMXS30 went up and tested the resistance at about 1657 closed the index near its dagslägsta. It is a sign of weakness. It increases the uncertainty on the OMXS30 in the short term to really have the strength to be able to establish themselves over in 1657.

New and very interesting buy signals would be obtained if the index has established itself over the resistance at about 1657 in a relatively high trading activity. Be happy then with börsomsättningar of over 25 billion during the uppgångsdagarna. In this case, we aim for a rise to the 1720 area.

If the OMXS30 instead fold down and go under the intensities at about 1636-1642, about 1626, and in particular at about 1600-1604 obtained a sell signal. And extra important would any sell signals if they occur under a relatively high trading activity.

The Stochastic indicator remains in a neutral area. It therefore provides no clear sign of the direction in which the OMXS30 most likely to go.

Factors which strengthen the uppgångsscenariot is that the long 200-day medeltalskurvan, which is located at approximately 1522, is still pointing upwards and that the index shows a clear pattern of rising bottoms and tops.

In the day chart emerges, however, some other warning signs that trendstyrkan is slowing. Namely, that börsomsättningen been relatively high for some nedgångsdagar. It is sign that the sellers have woken up to life and to the purchase page, do not dominate in strength in the same way as before. Would these trends continue, it is clear ominous signals for the more long-term stock market performance.

Other warning signs is the recent weakness in the US dollar and the decline in long-term interest rates both in the US and in Europe. Both the USD and bond rates have now also had clear sell signals. It testifies that financial markets had increased uncertainty about the economic situation. And thus also regarding the long-term earnings prospects of listed companies. An important question is here, if Trump is going to get through their stimulansreformer? Or will he become so political resistance to skattesänkningspaketen with more does not become?

Säsongsmönstret also indicates that after a strong beginning in June, the risk of the stock market then to go down towards the end of June. Typically, then, is that the bottom is reached in connection to midsummer. Then follows usually a stock market, which usually peak in July or in August. The OMXS30 need not, of course, slavishly follow this pattern each year. But it can be good to be observant of this. Some years the match säsongsmönstret namely a little extra well.

Short-term-oriented investors would therefore be able to be placed for the upturn as long as the intensities in the timdiagrammet above, either there at about 1645 or in the case of c. 1636, depending on where and even riskpreferens, agrees.

Aim then on gains to the first and foremost resistance at about 1657.

Would OMXS30 however, instead of establishing themselves in the support at c. 1636 can aim downs to in the first place the support at about 1626. And then down to about 1600-1604. Stop loss example, if the index goes over in 1636.

More long-term focused investors can, however, find the location to now be a bit more careful than in the past. The long trends are still upward but the alarm bells have started to ring a little here and there. Handelsvolymsambanden has become more uncertain. And the dollar and long-term interest rates warn of a slowdown of the economic situation.

If you want to be careful , it may be time to sell of part of the holdings at the gains. Especially if they were to take place in a relatively low trading activity.

Would OMXS30 start to go down during a growing börsaktivitet we recommend, however, that some more definite sell even more long-term holdings.

However, if the OMXS30 index breaks up above resistance on the OMXS30 at about 1657 during the rising trading activity obtained strong buy signals. In that case, take it out of the previous received warning shots. Then you can re-act to rise to at least the ancient peaks around about 1720.

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