© O Financista.
Thanks to the renewed volatility posted yesterday on most world markets, the EUR/USD pair is managed to break out of a consolidation phase slightly bearish which has dominated the trade since the 10 days, breaking below the lower bound of its range, and remains under pressure today faced with a series of solid statistics US.
A series of good surprises in the economic calendar US
Retail sales for the month of July are, in fact, were up 0.7% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.3% previous.
The manufacturing indexes of the Fed of New York and Philadelphia have also been the occasion of good surprises, 4.8 points compared to 3 points advance to the index of the Fed of New York, and 16.8 points compared to 10 points early to the index of the Philadelphia Fed.
Finally, the productivity in Q2 grew 2.3% against 1.5% expected.
In the Face of these figures, the pressure thus remains bearish on the Euro-Dollar, although the pair has not marked new lows for the moment after yesterday’s fall.
The inversion of the yield curve has already pushed EUR/USD yesterday
Recall that the day yesterday had been marked by a resurgence of risk aversion, following an inversion of the yield curve 2-year / 10-year-old, a signal which has preceded the last 7 recessions.
As in most of the phases of risk aversion, the Dollar was preferred to the Euro.
Traders today seem to relativize the signal of a recession that is supposed to provide the inversion for the curve of rates, but other elements have come again to feed the risk aversion today.
The trade war worries again
In fact, after the stillness of the beginning of the week, the record of the negotiations China-USA reiterates its concern that the market on Thursday, after China said that it still plans to continue to respond to the new tariffs of Trump, although they have been pushed back from 1 September to 15 December.
This report announced on Tuesday by the US president had left to hope for an improvement of relations China-USA, but the reports today that show that it is not enough to soften the position of Beijing.
After all, it is clear that Trump has taken this decision to avoid an impact of tariffs on the Christmas shopping rather than to make a step forward to China…
Technical analysis EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, we can identify several signals bearish lately, with the break under the low of the range yesterday, a crossing of the moving average 100 hours under the moving average 200 hour this morning.
In relation to important thresholds, the low of yesterday, 1.1130 is to be considered as an immediate support, before the psychological threshold of 1.11, and then 1.1050, 1.1025, and 1.10.
The increase, 1.12 will be the first major obstacle, before 1.1250, and then 1.1280 and 1.13.