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After a first part of the day to the downside and a low of 1.1002 in the early afternoon, the EUR/USD pair offered a significant rebound, marking a recent peak at 1.1070.
The pair EUR/USD took advantage of a part of the speech of Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, and on the other hand statistics US disappointing, which weighed on the Dollar.
Christine Lagarde has never alluded to any new measure of monetary policy of the ECB, which seems to have been enough for the market to reduce the perceived probability for new stimulus in the coming months.
In regards to the american statistics, it is especially the manufacturing ISM, which seems to have influenced the EUR/USD, with a fall surprise to 48.1 points for the month of November, after 48.3 in the previous month, and while the consensus had expected a rise to 49.2 points. This comes to contradict the improvement of the US economy suggested by a number of statistics last week, and this is prompting investors to be cautious vis-à-vis the economic calendar US responsible for these next few days.
From a graphical point of view, the increase of these last hours has allowed the Euro-Dollar cross several thresholds of the key moving averages 100 and 200 hours and the resistance of 1.1050.
At this stage, the next key test will be the moving average 100 days currently at 1.1072, and then the psychological threshold of 1.11. It is only above these thresholds that we can begin to conjure up outlook bullish long-lasting.
However, although the rally of the Euro this Monday seems to be powerful, we can estimate that the traders are going to limit the growth in pending the next key indicators, of which the most important will be the report to the NFP on job creation, US from November Friday.
If the economic calendar is loaded this week’s manages to bring the Euro above 1.11 Dollar, the resistance zone consisting of the 200-day moving average at 1.1162, and the summits of the 21 November and the beginning of October to 1.1180 will come into play.
Finally, the decrease in the thresholds to monitor are the key psychological level of 1.10 and the low of the last week 1.0980.
Under these thresholds, the profile of the EUR/USD would be more positively bearish, and the area of 1.09 and of the hollow for the annual 1.0880 could be quickly referred to.