EUR-USD – daily Chart
After starting the week up, marking a peak at 1.1205 Monday, the pair EUR/USD has posted heavy losses, up to a weekly low at 1.1096 this Thursday.
It will be recalled that the acceleration to the downside yesterday was at least in part due to the publication of an excellent statistics in the US strengthened the Dollar.
The ADP report on private-sector employment in the United States is, in fact, emerged well above expectations, with 202k job creations for the month of December, against 160k expected. In addition, the figures for the previous month have been very largely revised upward, from 67k to 124k.
This should lead investors to raise their expectations for the report, NFP due Friday, and that is to be regarded as the most important event of the week for the Euro-Dollar.
Today, the new weakness of the Euro is partly the result of its correlation with the GBP/USD lost about 100 pips since this morning, in the face of remarks by the governor of the central bank of England, Mark Carney. It stated that the rebound of the economy projected by the BoE in its annual predictions is not insured.
It is also noted that the trade balance German disappointing released this morning has done nothing to support the Euro, although it should be noted that the industrial production released at the same time as it revealed better-than-expected.
This afternoon, the only statistic potentially influential will be the entries weekly U.S. unemployment, at 14: 30.
Technical analysis EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view it should be noted that the EUR/USD pair has sent many signals to bearish this week, to the point of seeming to now take the path of a bearish reversal bottom.
On Monday, the inability of the pair to hold above 1.12 and move test the highs of the December 31 at 1.1240 was already an alarm signal.
The break below the moving average 100 hours of Tuesday was then further contribute to the construction of a profile is bearish.
Breaks below the moving average 200 days and 200 hours have then confirmed the dominance of the sellers on Wednesday.
Finally, the Euro-Dollar tests this Thursday, the lower bound of an uptrend channel visible since mid-November 2019 in hourly data.
Currently, the threshold of 1.11 is an immediate support, whose break would confirm the bearish reversal of the bottom, which would put in the line of sight to the moving average 100 days to 1.1065 and the threshold of major psychological of 1.10.
Has the upside, the 200-day moving average now at 1.1140 is the initial resistance before the psychological threshold of 1.12, which has sent the Euro down earlier this week.