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Despite the sharp fall on Friday (between a peak of 1.12 and a low of 1.11 in less than 24 hours), the uptrend visible on the EUR/USD pair since the beginning of the month of December does not seem to have said its last word.
The Euro-Dollar has stood up well to the publication of the european PMI indexes are mixed this morning. It should be remembered that the manufacturing PMI of the euro area preliminary for the month of December came in at 45.9 points vs. 47.3 expected and 46.9 previously, figures largely disappointing, which were only partially offset by a slight positive surprise on the PMI services, which is displayed to 52.4 from 52 in advance.
But these figures have not, therefore, affected the Euro, because after opening up to 1.1125 last night, the EUR/USD pair has marked a top at 1.1155 this Monday, now a trend is generally positive, while the pair was still at a good distance from the peak of 1.12 scored last week in the face of the favorable result of the elections in UK.
It may be noted that the good performance of the EUR/USD may in part be attributed to the disappointment of the market for the index of the Fed of New-York published at 14: 30, which is shown under the consensus.
Thresholds to monitor in the short term on the EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, it should be noted that the fall of Friday had been replaced by the moving average 100 hours currently to 1.1125, a threshold that we will take as an immediate support, before the psychological threshold of 1.11 (which is where the moving average 200 hours), and then the moving average 100 days to 1.1063.
Has the upside, the 200-day moving average 1.1152 is the first critical resistance, before the summit in the last week to 1.12.
A busy week awaits the EUR/USD
For the rest of the week, the economic calendar will remain in charge of events potentially influential on the EUR/USD pair.
On Tuesday, investors will monitor building permits and housing starts, and industrial production US.
On Wednesday, it is the IFO index of business climate of German and euro zone’s CPI, which may eventually influence trade.
On Thursday, a triptych of news out of the US will attract market attention, with the inscriptions weekly jobless claims, the index of the Philadelphia Fed and existing home sales.
Finally, Friday will also be an important day, with a new estimate of the growth in US in the third quarter, and the consumer confidence index US, according to the University of Michigan.