SEB’s Boprisindikator is now at 63. There is a decline of six units from last month. Regions differs and is within the range of 65 to 72. Households ‘ expectations of the repo rate’s level on a year turning down to 0.0 per cent. The proportion who plan to bind their interest rates fell by two points from the previous month and now stands at 5 per cent.
Of the households responding, 74 per cent that they believe in rising prices over the next year. It is the decline of two points compared with the previous two months. The proportion who believe in falling prices rose by four units from 7 to 11 per cent. The proportion who believe in the same prices rose by two points to 11 per cent. The overall effect is that the Boprisindikatorn falls by six units.
We define SEB’s Boprisindikator as the difference between the proportion who believe in rising prices and the percentage that believe in falling prices. The indicator is set in this measurement, 63 which is six points lower than last month.
– Households continue to have a strong belief in continued price increases. To Boprisindikatorn still falls clearly this month can be due to the new Fsa rulings on enhanced requirements. Now it remains to see if the effect on expectations will become permanent and if we also get to see the effect on the real price and debt dynamics, as is the aim with the Swedish financial supervisory authority’s proposal, says SEB’s privatekonom Jens Magnusson.
Households believe that the repo rate will remain at 0.0 per cent on a year
On the question what households think about the level of the Riksbank’s repo rate on a year they say on average that the repo rate will be 0.0 percent. It is a decrease from last month when the expectations are low at 0.06%.
Five per cent of households were planning to tie the interest rate
Of the households who fully or partially has a variable interest rate on their loan accounts five per cent that they have no intention of tying the interest rate in the upcoming three-month period. It is a decrease from last month and for the first time in five months as fewer than 6 or 7 per cent of households say that they intend to bind a part of their interest.
“It is positive that the percentage who plan to tie the parts of their mortgage loan is continued at a relatively high level. The riksbank’s announced interest rate hikes has taken longer than expected, probably contributes to the decline we still see it this month. It is important for households to know that the interest rate forecasts is difficult and for most is the best strategy to distribute their interest rate risks by binding interest rate on at least part of their loans, preferably in a couple of different fixed-rate periods, ” says Jens Magnusson.
Boprisindikatorn step only in a region
The regions differ more and less to and is now in the range of 65 to 72. Only the increase for June is in the Eastern Region in which Boprisindikatorn increases by three units from 69 to 72 as measured by the two-month average. In Norrland, Svealand except Stockholm and the Västra Götaland region, the indicator was unchanged at 67, 70 and 66 units. In Stockholm declined the indicator by five units from 71 to 66 and in Skåne, with 6 units from 71 to 65.
Demoskop carry out monthly since march 2003 on behalf of the SEB survey Boprisindikatorn. This study is based on 1 000 interviews and was conducted during the period 30 may to 7 June.
Boprisindikatorn – Development last 12 months:
For more information please contact
Jens Magnusson, Privatekonom
070-210 22 67
Frank Hojem, Head Of Media Relations
08-763 99 47
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Press release (PDF)
Boprisindikatorn June 2017