Råvarubrevet v.40 ”U.s. dollar are taking their toll…”

Since the previous week, the u.s. dollar has had both oil, base metals and precious metals. In the short term is space before further pressure from the dollar, even though we are now approaching the technically attractive köplägen. Concerns about north Korea has clearly slowed, as Turkey after the previous elections, and the upcoming rate hike has been put in focus when Trump is on the hunt for new governor.


Since the last week has been the continued strengthening of the u.s. dollar had become the focus.

Brent crude has experienced a clear profit taking, to take everything closer to the step 55 dollars, from the previous listing of just over 59 dollars.

The unrest around Turkey, has been blown away in recent days, to see the focus turned towards OPEC, and whether the produktionsfrysning prevailing up to the march, will be extended or not.

On the basis of a styrkeperspektiv, it would hardly hurt if the member countries of the OPEC will agree on an extension, to let oil prices find a stabilization and foundation around the current levels.

The decline since the top at $ 59, is now trading just below the technical nyckelnivån at 56 dollars, whereupon an establishment in this price level would be extremely negative. Furthermore, if the 55 dollars is being challenged seriously, well then, there is the risk that the price of oil will weaken all the more on the basis of a short-term technical perspective.

One of the great innovations on the market is that brazilian Petróleo Brasileiro SA, according to the country’s Mining and Energy minister Fernando Coelho Filho stated that the state oil company may be privatized in the long term, reports Reuters.

The u.s. dollar is the main culprit in the drama, which not only pushed the oil price, but also continued to whip at the base metals, and precious metals.

China has also been closed both Monday and Tuesday, which clearly contributed to the lower volume in the market.

Copper looks otherwise most interesting in the base metals, which is clearly consolidating, and mobilizing before the outbreak. Tin continues to consolidate, and the looks still out to download the face of a major outbreak, as we wrote about already week 38.

Zinc which greatly risen,and is now trading around the 10-year high levels, up over +4.0% since the previous week.

The dollar has also continued to put pressure on gold, which is now trading around 1270 dollars to challenge the 100 day moving average, around two-month low.

Gold starts in addition to take everything closer to get technically interesting köplägen, but from a fundamental perspective, we find ourselves in a slightly higher risk perspective.

Us president, Donald Trump is on the hunt for new boe governor, and has, according to the reporting news sites such as Bloomberg and Reuters interviewed 4 person.

One of the candidates singled out as highly probable, is Kevin Warsh, who is said to be significantly more höktaktig than the current Janet Yellen, which further drives the köpstyrka to the u.s. dollar. Warsch was 35 when he was nominated to come on board to the Fed January 2010, of former president George W. Bush.

The decision on a new chairman of the u.s. Federal Reserve will within ”two or three weeks,” said Donald Trump, according to Reuters.

In foods , we think that the corn in particular beginning to see increasingly more interesting, both technically but also fundamentally. Corn is a really big consumer product in the world, and when the USDA says that farmers are said to be following both when it comes to the harvest, but also to the maturity of the raw material, there is much that speaks for the deficit in the future.

Approximately 68 percent of the corn is ripe for harvest according to USDA, compared with femårssnitt of 78 percent. As it is 17% of the farmers to be ready with his harvest on Sunday, against 26 per cent in the same period of the previous year.

Heavy support level at 3.46 dollars saved on the decline at the turn, and after a short tug and the weakness since mid-september, shown a clear underlying positive attitude, and looks now to be about to challenge the short-term 50-day moving average.

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The dollar, the oil in the case.

After previously stepped up and traded above $ 59, has the increasingly stronger us dollar gained, the price of oil to back.

This has led to the focus has shifted to OPEC, and the current produktionsfrysning that apply, and whether an extension will be in addition to march 2018 in order to stop a further decline.

Until we get such a clear sign of strength, we keep track of the underlying support at the 55 dollars, now when the technical nyckelnivån at 56 to the dollar was broken.

We see breakthrough as a negative, at the same time as the clear profit taking is not unexpected in itself, as we highlighted already in the previous week.

Between 54 to 57 dollars, we have clearly with the volume of last year, and it is not until we step back over 57 dollars, until we can count the home a on the rise.


Consolidation in the copper speaks for the attractive outbreak.

Since the copper is greatly increased in the autumn, has, however, this base metal has been losing ground in tune with a more recovery that has taken place in the weakness of the u.s. dollar.

This has meant that we are now in september after the fall got to experience a clear consolidation, and the struggle with short-term 50-day moving average.

Underlying köpstyrka appears in the image, at the same time as the price level 6 600 thesis be hard to beat. We believe, nevertheless, that we are on the road facing a new outbreak, and the establishment of this price level, in order to re-challenge the high for the year at just over 6 900.


Gold is approaching attractive köpläge.

Consistently weakness has stepped into the picture by the american dollar become the focus from their recovery.

Risk appetite has thus stepped into the new in the market, which including appearing on u.s. exchanges that continue to trade around all-time highs.

The previous week we ran a fight with the MA 50, and this week after further fall to 1 270 dollars, we challenge the MA 100.

In the short term, we want to see further weakness, in order to step down to at least 1260, but is happy to 1250 before an attractive purchase is revealed. We consider then the probability that we can get the renewed rise to 1 in 270, followed by a 1 300 dollars on new.

Broad gains on the stock market to recurring peak levels, concerns about north Korea, the potential for independence from Catalonia in Spain, but even Brexit are all potential triggers that can get the gold to shine properly.

When it is least likely, perhaps, is when you seriously take time to think…


Corn joins forces before the outbreak!

As we have previously highlighted start corn look really interesting, both from a technical but also fundamental perspective, then the risk of deficit stepped forward as a potential trigger.

We have after a heavy decline since the end of July had the opportunity to experience a clear consolidation in september.

Despite minor rebound after recovery when the sole technical support level at 3.46 dollars were challenged, we see the underlying köpstyrka since the middle of september.

In the short term it looks like we are coming days can challenge the 50-day moving average, which speaks for a challenging technical resistance at 3.61 dollars.

We manage to get a closure, and the establishment of this resistance, then we see great opportunities, we will challenge 3.80, followed by primarily high for the year at 4.00 dollars in the long term.

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