Råvarubrevet v.25 ”central Banks becoming more hawkish…”

Oil continues to be under clear pressure since the previous week, and is now trading around the lowest level since the end of 2016, and the question is whether OPEC will act in the future. The Fed raised interest rates as expected, and gave strength to the dollar after slightly more hawkish tongång than expected, despite the fact that this is not really reflected among the futures. The uk, which left an unchanged interest rate announcement the previous week, on Monday launched the Brexit negotiations with the ”positive and constructive tone”…


Oil has continued further to the south since the previous week, and Brent-the semester is trading now around 46.10 dollars, a decline of -2.90%, which is the lowest price level since november 2016.

There is a clear headwind in the oil sector, with both high inventory levels and continued high production. A forthcoming oljerally do not look to be on the map.

”The demand is not as strong as expected, and the supply continues to increase despite the lower prices. There are many reasons to sell oil, it seems that the negative momentum will continue,” said Michael McCarthy at CMC Markets, to Bloomberg News, the end of the previous week.

Big question that lands on the table, becomes whether OPEC will act in the future if the price of oil continues to move increasingly to the south.

”If prices move against the 40 dollars per barrel, this is likely to trigger some kind of reaction from Opec,” said Jonathan Barratt, an investment director at Ayers Alliance Securiteis in Sydney, to Bloomberg News.

Several base metals have benefited from a stronger dollar in recent times, and among other things, the nickel looks to have begun to find a bottom…

On Tuesday said EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström to the News agency Directly to the EU can come to answer us tariff protection on steel, with its own countermeasures against the united states, as well as a notification to the world trade organisation, the WTO.

The united states is expected soon, perhaps as early as this week, go out with the restrictions in this means that steel imports for reasons of security, according to a cooperative from 1962, known as the ”section 232”.

”First, there is the opportunity to appeal the decision to the WTO. And then you can take countermeasures. It is a framework for how it goes. We may look at it when the decision will”, said Cecilia Malmström.

Malmström did not want to use the word ”trade war”, but said that the U.S.’s actions will be hard on the EU steel industry, and that the EU must react in such a case. A clear abreaction, we look at Tuesday in the Swedish SSAB, which is down over -3%.

The u.s. central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range in the 1.00 – 1.25% as expected, but was somewhat more hawkish than expected when it came to future interest rate hikes.

The greatest probability for a future increase in interest rates under the Fed Funds Rate is not, however, until 13 december, which currently points to 33.2 per cent probability of a rate hike, however, still over 60% probability of maintaining the same rate of interest.

Perhaps it is precisely for this reason that even the gold found land, and potentially facing a turning point around 1250 dollars?

Gold is trading around the lowest price level since 5 weeks back, and Commerzbank has not given up a rebound, that believe we may see a rise to 1300 dollars before the end of the year.

When it comes to the british central bank, you submitted an unchanged interest rate announcement on Thursday. The pound was, however, a minor recovery, after it emerged that three british central bankers voted for a rate hike at Thursday’s meeting.

”A rate hike is unlikely before the country leaves the EUROPEAN union in march 2019,” wrote SEB economist Richard Falkenhäll in a market comment.

Brexit negotiations have also been launched this week, David Davis said that the Uk is entering into negotiations with a positive and constructive tone to build ”a deep and special relationship with our european allies and friends”.

”There is more that unites us than divides us, even if it will undoubtedly emerge challenging moments in the negotiations,” said David Davis.

SEB believed that the Riksbank at its next meeting on 3 July will go in the european central bank’s track, by removing the ”nedsiderisken” when it comes to the repo-rate path. Especially the us central bank, but also other central banks have become more hawkish.

Among foods, we see several interesting case this week. Orange juice indicates that we have reached a turning point, and looks to download the face of an outbreak to the upside.

Soybeans stand out a little bit extra, with fundamental support from China, which is expected to make a record purchase of soybeans from the united states, as well as through the establishment of a technical key level, around 9.40 dollars, while recurrent cases challenged the 50-day moving average last 6 weeks.

We have a very quiet makroagenda this shortened midsommarvecka. In addition to a focus on the united kingdom launched the Brexit negotiations, we get on Friday the preliminary data, the purchasing managers index in EMU.

Commerzbank writes among other things in a marknadsbrev to the ”euro-PMI time and time again surprised on the upside in recent months, but that it will end soon. Globally outside the EMU, the ministry of industry-the manufacturing PMI namely, dropped three months in a row and this is expected to drag down even the euro-PMI, which is predicted trenda downward in the coming months”.

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The oil is under great pressure!

With the continued concern over high inventory levels, and the high-production, oil has continued its journey further south.

Brent-the semester is trading right now at 46.10 dollars, and thereby challenges the technical support level at 46 dollars seriously.

Would we get a breakthrough, and the establishment here in, well, then, increases the likelihood that we may be on the road for a visit of as low as 40 dollars, if the sentiment persists.

50 dollars is now even more absent, and beyond the horizon. For the moment it feels rather as we go and are waiting on a statement from OPEC, and what is to come, to save the situation, with a continued decline….

Perhaps a decline in the 46 dollars, can create such a situation, and give fuel to the renewed upturn, and the challenging of the resistance at 49 dollars…?

Has nickel bottomed out?

After a clear decline in the years, it looks like that the nickel may finally be on the way to bottoming out.

Then, a week back has nickel rising +2.23%, and is now all the more closer to get the short-term 50-day moving average.

Purely fundamentally, we find support that we can get a further rise. The unrest in the Philippines which is the world’s producer, is expected to influence the availability the coming years along with the growth is not expected to be as strong against the average during 2012 to 2016, the next five years.

Possibly we can get a consolidation if köpstyrkan not manage to contribute to the establishment of the 50-day moving average, but we can’t ignore the fact that we now have stepped over the 9 000 level, which further helps with the positivity.

We believe thus that the probability is relatively large that we are now on the way north to challenge the resistance level of just over 9 300.

Gold interesting despite the unexpectedly hawkish Fed?

Despite the fact that we highlighted a possible discounting of the movement from the Fed’s expected interest rate hike, gold lost ground, and is currently at 1248 dollars, which is below the support level at 1260 dollars. Unexpectedly hawkish Fed has been given the gold to lose almost -1.5% since the previous week.

Despite the fact that we can get to get a further interest rate hike from the Fed this year, see is not the image quite clear in the Fed Funds Rate, which means that we will be somewhat reluctant. We should also not forget the political unrest that us president Donald Trump creates.

Technically, it looks like gold has found a bottom last day, and maybe this can be a turning point for a return back above the 100 day moving average.

We are, however, some uncertainty mode, and is slightly more passive, because we opened below the MA 100 on Tuesday. Would sellers start to show their prowess again, there is a big risk for a challenging of the MA 200 which is right now at 1236 dollars.

Sentiment can turn quickly, which means that we keep clear track of, among other things, the u.s. dollar, but also skräckindexet the VIX, for once it occurs, the anxiety, it is time for gold to shine again…

USDSEK loading before the outbreak!

Since the previous week, the fight has continued, with recurrent challenging of the technical resistance at 8.75.

We still think the dollar looks interesting against the Swedish krona, which also got a little boost after the previous week’s unexpected hawkish Fed, even if we are somewhat questioning, as we previously mention in this week’s råvarubrev.

We have now left the year more is behind us, and we still think the dollar looks interesting out in the short term. However, we are waiting for an outbreak, when the resistance at 8.75 has been hard to beat.

In the unlikely event that an outbreak occur, we keep an extra eye on the support level at 8.60, because this could be a trigger for further weakening of the dollar against the Swedish krona. Trump has previously stated that the u.s. dollar is too strong, which is also one of the reasons that we see this as a short-term case.

Soybeans are gearing up for the on the rise…!

With fundamental support from China, which is expected to make record-breaking purchases from the united states, there exists a positive attitude in soybeans.

Technically has the month of June has been a strong month, and just last week, the soybeans found land over technical nyckelnivån just in 9.40 dollars, and we are now trading at 9.41 dollars.

We also saw a challenged on Monday of the short-term 50-day moving average, which has repeatedly been challenged since the beginning of the month of may, after we have previously received an establishment under it, in the beginning of march.

We are still waiting for an establishment of 9.50 dollars, before we cry too loudly, in order not to experience a false outbreak to the establishment of this technical key level. Otherwise, the risk is increased that we will return to trading in the 9.30 – 9.40 dollars in the future, which then also opens up for another challenging of the year at 9.10 dollars…

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