[On the occasion of the 40 years of the Centre for prospective studies and international information (CEPII), experts have explored different scenarios for globalization].
Forum. Donald Trump has just launched the great offensive protectionist antichinoise (but not only…), that he had announced during his election campaign in 2016. Until then, its efforts had been able to seem measured compared to his ranting : output of the agreement, trans-pacific, that the United States Obama had not ratified it ; the renegotiation of the trade agreement in north america with Canada and Mexico and the bilateral agreement with South Korea… Until then, more frightened than hurt.
But the recent announcements are of a different magnitude : a first wave on the steel and the aluminum, for a few billion dollars, a second burst of ads focused on China, which amounts to several tens of billions of exchanges. The financial markets have reacted more nervously.
However, if the escalation is clear, even if it is not, at this stage, advertisements, signals that accompany them seem confused, even contradictory, resulting in a great perplexity about the actual intentions of the american president and his government.
Two scenarios are possible
It denounces the world trade Organization (WTO), “a disaster,” tweets Donald Trump, but we are launching a lawsuit against China, while blocking the operation of the machine litigation in Geneva. Look for the error ! It exhumes the museum of weapons of trade protection laws to national defense to punish the Europeans or the Japanese, allies of the faithful.
One would wish that there was as much Chevrolet to Berlin that of Mercedes, to New York, as if this reciprocity was the slightest sense in the Twenty-first century. We wish to rebalance the u.s. trade balance, which everyone knows that it is a structural deficit…