EUR/USD: The trend remains uncertain despite a new low

The pair EUR/USD has been broadly fraibli since this morning, but not enough at this point to give a profile bearish. Overall, the trend seems to be still uncertain, in spite of a new low 1.1161 this morning against 1.1167 to the lows of last week.

In recent weeks, the escalation of the trade war has caused the market to predict with a greater certainty that new rate cuts from the Fed, which had weighed on the Dollar and helped EUR/USD.

However, now that rate cut expectations are more, or even fully integrated into the course, the main consequence of the trade war becomes risk aversion, which benefits the greenback, paradoxically regarded as a safe haven.

After opening up by over 1%, the CAC 40 is now displayed in negative territory, and it is also the case of future US. These last hours have also seen the Gold firm up, which also confirms the sense of risk-aversion that dominates.

In this connection, we will be able to identify an analytical note Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which explains which details the impact encrypted potential trade war on the growth of US, considering that the conflict China-US increases significantly the risk of a recession in the United States.

Technical analysis EUR/USD

From a graphical point of view, it should be noted that the fall of this morning has stopped a few pips of the moving average 200 hours, currently at 1.1160, and which can be considered as an immediate support.

Below this threshold, the trend will become more bearish, with the possibility of a correction towards the psychological threshold of 1.11 in a first time.

The increase, the threshold posychologique of 1.12 is immediate resistance, further enhanced by the fact that the moving average 100 hours is currently onmy threshold. Above 1.1250 will be the next critical resistance. Beyond that, 1.1280 and 1.13 will be the next target upside potential.

Finally, as regards the economic calendar, we note that the first day of the week will be empty, with no statistics, potentially influential on the EUR/USD.

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